Can I have some idea of what schools I should be aiming for?

[bayyyesian]

I would appreciate it if someone could give me an idea of what I could expect this next admissions season. I have a somewhat difficult profile to evaluate, with a poor freshman year, so I'm not really sure where I should be aiming.

I'll be applying to PhD statistics programs for Fall 2013. Here is my profile:

Institution: Top Liberal Arts College

Major: Math

GPA (Overall and Major): 3.5

Grades:

Bad part (Freshman year):

Calc 2: B

Linear Algebra: B-

Intro Statistics: B

Better Parts:

Calc-based probability: A

Mathematical statistics: A

Combinatorics: A-

Number Theory: A-

Statistics research project: A

Real Analysis: B/B+ (Didn't get grade yet)

Intro Biostatistics: A

GRE: Haven't taken yet, although expect near-170 on Quantitative section.

Research: SIBS program, research with professor at undergraduate institution (no publication), statistics REU (should lead to publication)

Letters of Recommendation: Should all be great

As you can imagine, I'm worried about how those grades from so long ago will affect me, although I think my performance in higher-level classes show that those are not representative work.

Here is a list of PhD programs I'm interested in, somewhat in order from reaches to more realistic options:

Washington/Washington Biostat

CMU

NCSU

Michigan

Duke

UNC

Florida

Rice

WashU

Missouri

Michigan State

Iowa

Georgia

[cyberwulf]

That list looks just about right to me; the places at the top will be tough (though not impossible) to crack, but I suspect you will have a pretty good success rate from the middle of the list on down.

[ANDS!]

As with anything the admission process is pretty random. However Washington, CMU, Duke, UNC, Michigan and MAYBE NCSU might be incredible reaches given your academic performance.

Also, if some of those places require the subject GRE (or strongly recommend it), you might also be disadvantage. But you never know - if you have the funding to do so, I would go for the glory.

[bayyyesian]

Thank you for the candor. Most of those top places will probably not be places I actually apply to, and I realize they are not likely. I will probably apply to those schools (Wash, UNC, Mich's) biostats programs rather than statistics, as I think those are somewhat more realistic options (with the exception of Washington, which is still a huge reach).

[wine in coffee cups]

Any track record from other students at your school applying to stats programs with similar grades?

[bayyyesian]

I don't have any such record, since there's very few who go to stats grad school (one to a PhD program in the last 4 years that I can think of).

[ANDS!]

Thank you for the candor. Most of those top places will probably not be places I actually apply to, and I realize they are not likely. I will probably apply to those schools (Wash, UNC, Mich's) biostats programs rather than statistics, as I think those are somewhat more realistic options (with the exception of Washington, which is still a huge reach).

Thing is, you don't need to attend a top 10 school (hell even a top 20) to have long term academic/professional success. Widen your net to the Top 50 (see what US News and Phd.org have to say about that) and you'll find some better fits academically and socially I'm thinking.

Also, if you transition to biostats your chances of getting into some of those schools definitely increases - barrier to entry isn't that high for folks with OK math backgrounds.

[bayyyesian]

Thank you for the input ANDS! I agree. In fact, some of the lower ranked schools on that list (eg Missouri, Colorado State, etc) are currently at the top of my list.

[ANDS!]

I had a great conversation with the folks at Missouri. If my academic goals hadn't changed in the resulting weeks, they would have been a contendor for where I wanted to end up. Only use those rankings as a "guide" - they ALL will provide an excellent academic background, so that shouldn't be the concern. Your concern should be in regards to research fit, and long term professional success.