Very Rough Approximation of PhD Acceptance Probabilities

[tcmazer]

 

Just a fun (read: very rough guesstimate) way to determine how likely you are to get into at least one PhD program.

 

How I suggest using this graph:

 

Use P(5%) if GPA < 3.00, felony on record, or academic probation etc.

 

Use P(10%) if applying to mostly difficult to get in schools, or lower stats (GPA < 3.3, GRE percentages <60%) and no papers

 

Use P(20%) if applying to mostly middle of the road schools, with average stats (GPA ~= 3.5, GRE percentages ~= 75%)

 

Use P(30%) if applying to mostly "safety" schools, or if you have high stats (GPA >3.8, GRE percentages >90%) and several papers

 

 

 

 

And remember, these suggestions are very loosely based in reality.  Those interested in how I made it, I used the Bernoulli distribution: (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernoulli_distribution)

 

Enjoy!

Edited November 4, 2013 by tcmazer

[fuzzylogician]

|resists urge to comment on the assumptions made here|.

[tcmazer]

Assumptions the size of planets! 

[iExcelAtMicrosoftPuns]

Yay! Now I don't need to worry anymore! 

THANK YOU SOOOOO MUCH!

(obvious?)

Very fun- perhaps forward everyone who creates a "what are my chances" topic here?

[tcmazer]

Figured it's about as accurate as the average non-professor's guess in those topics.  Also - who doesn't like graphs?  And who doesn't like graphs that give (possibly inflated) ounces of hope?

[meaningless]

What I get from this graph is - Sub 3 is not hopeless, thanks!

[tcmazer]

Good to hear!  No problem!