Profile Evaluation, Statistics PhD/MS

[yosemitesam]

Undergrad Institution: Top 20 US 
Major(s): Physics
Minor(s): Jazz Studies
GPA: 3.85

Type of Student: US White Male
GRE General Test: (took June 2017)
Q: 170 (97%)
V: 170 (99%)
W: 6.0 (99%)

GRE Math Sub: Taking in October, aiming for 70th percentile

Programs Applying: Statistics PhD/MS

 

Research Experience: 

• Working now on an independent project developing a model for a private company, will write a paper and submit with my applications as a writing sample
• Developed a decently performing model for a challenge, think I'll have my name in a published paper as a result (http://www.fragilefamilieschallenge.org/)
• Worked in a physics lab as a year for a sophomore (It was pretty good but I realized I didn't have a passion for working in labs, and that was about ten years ago now (!), so pretty sure I can't get a reference letter)
• Worked as an RA for a humanities professor over a summer (just pretty simple clerical stuff; again, this was about 8 years ago)

Awards/Honors/Recognitions: Phi Beta Kappa, graduated with College Honors in Arts and Sciences, Dean's List every semester, National Merit Scholarship recipient
Pertinent Activities or Jobs: Developed a simple algorithm for my friend at a large company to make predictions (have to talk to him but I think I'll be able to characterize that as an internship and put it on my CV); 8 years of tutoring math/physics/test prep

Courses: 

• Math/Statistics:
  • Honors Calc 3 (took in high school at a top 30 university, A), Matrix Algebra (A), Diff EQ (A), Probability (took this summer at a top 25 university, A+), Mathematical Statistics (took this summer at a top 25 university, A), Real Analysis (taking this fall at a meh state school, was my only option unfortunately)
• Computer Science:
  • Intro to Computer Programming (A+), Computer Science I (A)
• Other courses with heavy math component:
  • Intro Microecon (A-), Intermediate Macroecon (took this summer at a top 25 university, A+), many physics classes of course (all A+/A/A- except one B+)
• Online courses (MOOCs):
  • Econometrics (Coursera), Statistical Learning (Stanford Lagunita, Hastie/Tibshirani), Machine Learning (Coursera, Ng), a few SQL classes, a few classes on R/Python

Letters of Recommendation: Undergraduate advisor who I took a math class with and got an A in; mathematical statistics professor who I got an A with; still figuring out third (could be advisor for research project I'm working on now, although I don't get a lot of face time so not sure as of now how strong that letter would be; humanities professor who I worked as a summer RA for who liked me a lot and I tutored her kids for over a year afterward, or possibly one of two graduate students (one who was a TA, one who taught a class) who like me a lot and can speak to my mathematical ability). 
Any Miscellaneous Points that Might Help: My research interests are more on the applied side rather than theory

 

Programs considering:

 

PhD:

• Duke
• Penn Wharton
• UNC
• NC State
• Columbia
• UCLA
• USC Marshall (Data Science and Operations--Statistics)
• CalTech (Computing and Mathematical Sciences)
• NYU
• Northwestern

 

MS:

• Berkeley
• Harvard
• Chicago

 

Concerns: 

• I graduated just about 8 years ago (graduated a semester early). I will turn 30 just before programs start next fall. Not sure how this will affect me? I've taken the GRE, Probability, Mathematical Statistics, and Intermediate Macroecon this year, and will take Real Analysis and the GRE Math Subject test this fall. Plus I've been tutoring all these years. So I'm hoping that will show my readiness to go back to school.
• I know my math coursework is a little thin. And based on my practice I'm not sure I can count on a math GRE score much past the 70th percentile. I'm hoping that will be enough to be in the running at the programs I'm looking at?
• I think I'll have two reasonably strong letters, but I'm not sure what to do about the third. Any advice would be appreciated.
• Any advice on how I can best spend my time between now and when applications are due? I will be taking this Real Analysis class and working on my research project/paper, as well as wrangling rec letters of course. The impression I'm under is that out of the things I can do now that are within my control, the most important things would be maximizing my GRE math subject test score, securing the best rec letters I can, and making this research project/resulting paper as good as possible. 

Edited September 12, 2017 by yosemitesam

[statfan]

I am not saying this to discourage you but considering your lack of math preparation and relatively weak recommendation letters, probably all of the schools you listed are gonna be reaches. Getting a high score in MGRE will help but without background in real analysis I suspect it. Also, seeking a letter from a grad student is also not a good idea. IMO, what consists of a great reference is the highlight of your research potential. Conversely, letters only saying you did well in class may end up hurting you. I think you'd be better off applying next year, making up the gap in real analysis and hopefully do statistical research with some prof. Taking a few grad courses in stat is also a good idea.

Edited September 12, 2017 by statfan

[yosemitesam]

Thank you for the input. Are you suggesting that the real analysis class I'm taking this fall won't do much of anything for me? My final grade should be ready before the end of December, which in some cases will be before the application deadline. Otherwise I'll send the grade along as soon as I get it.

Also how would you rate my chances at those masters programs? What kind of departments do you think I'd be a good fit for this year?

Edited September 12, 2017 by yosemitesam

[statfan]

It would definitely help if you get good grade from it. However, you are still behind the best applicants who have several terms of real analysis plus substantial research experience. My suggestion is to ask profs who know you well to write the letter. Given your profile, I think you are competitive at any masters programs since masters programs generally do not require real analysis.

[edward130603]

outside the top few schools, a lot of admitted students do not have several analysis classes. duke and penn are probably going to be pretty low chances

ncsu has more applied research, good industry connections and has lots of students who aren't fresh out of college

i believe penn and unc are both more traditional (i.e. more theory) programs 

[yosemitesam]

Thanks, good to know. I'll think more in terms of programs outside the top 10 or so.

[cyberwulf]

I have a hunch that you're the kind of applicant that programs may want to "take a gamble" on despite your relatively light formal math background. Things working most strongly in your favor include strong performance at an elite undergraduate institution and extremely impressive GRE scores. Also, through your physics courses you've likely been exposed to many more mathematical concepts and techniques than is suggested by your relatively short list of "named" math courses. 

I don't think your list of PhD programs is at all unreasonable; I wouldn't be surprised if you got into a couple of pretty highly-ranked programs.

[yosemitesam]

Cool, thanks for the feedback and kind words! I realize I'm not a typical candidate, I'm hoping someone will give me a shot. As long as I'm not just wasting application fees and paper, I'm happy to throw my hat into the ring and see what happens.

[StatsG0d]

On 9/15/2017 at 3:08 PM, cyberwulf said:

I have a hunch that you're the kind of applicant that programs may want to "take a gamble" on despite your relatively light formal math background. Things working most strongly in your favor include strong performance at an elite undergraduate institution and extremely impressive GRE scores. Also, through your physics courses you've likely been exposed to many more mathematical concepts and techniques than is suggested by your relatively short list of "named" math courses. 

I don't think your list of PhD programs is at all unreasonable; I wouldn't be surprised if you got into a couple of pretty highly-ranked programs.

Totally agree with this. I think you have a decent shot at a top-10 stats / top-5 biostats. I'd maybe replace Northwestern with U Chicago.