dr. t

Files come in, profs look over those in their specialties, and then send them on to the overall committee, who makes the final selections. A professor can sometimes know if a file they've forwarded is going to make it through or not, e.g. if the three Americanists in the dept. all decide that Jane Smith is their number one pick for that year. That's likely what these acceptances are.
 
 

For a long time, this paralleled my thoughts on the matter. But, as an adviser pointed out, a guaranteed 5-7 years making $30k with excellent health insurance coverage isn't nothing in this prepostapocalyptic hellscape. So I'm not so sure anymore.

Having been around for both the original (2015 was my first year of my doctorate), and being currently on the job market (30 applications, 1 interview, 8 outstanding, in case you want to know how that is), some thoughts in no particular order:
A PhD from a program with substantial resources (note: this is not equivalent to a top program, though there is substantial overlap) is still a worthwhile experience in and of itself. $30-35k yr plus good health insurance isn't nothing in this pre-postapocalyptic hellscape. Plus, I've had multi-month paid trips to Europe each year. My teaching load was light but engaging, and I thoroughly enjoyed the process of researching and writing my dissertation. The experience wasn't stress free, but it wasn't a bad sort of stress. A PhD in the humanities takes more than 5 years. Make sure you're funded accordingly (part of the first point). Going to a program without those resources, one where you have to scrape and claw and hustle to get even your basic needs met, is not a worthwhile experience. It's just volunteering to be exploited based on a lie as to future possibilities. The actual line between the two situations is a bit fuzzy, but err on the side of caution. Do not apply to programs just to make sure you go to grad school. I have very little sympathy for those who have recently finished their PhD and are left jobless or in adjunct hell. This includes some of my own friends. Yes, that's more than a bit brutal to say. But at this point, if you didn't know what the academic job market looked like going into it, that's on you. There are abundant resources that not only provide ample warning as to what lies ahead, but that also explain how to set yourself up for a non-academic career outside the academy, or at least outside a traditional professorship track. If the state of the world on the other side of your degree blindsides you, that's because you ignored several hundred flashing neon warning signs accompanied by air-raid sirens, or thought that, for some reason, they were trying to warn everyone else besides you. Have a plan for your post-degree future before you apply. That plan should both identify several possible career paths, most of which should not be "be a professor", and have intermediate goals that set up those career paths roughly mapped out.  Do not adjunct. Do anything other than adjunct. Hopefully that's useful.

Ah, the "Graph of Doom (tm)". No, for a lot of reasons, chief among which is that it is built on the assumed truth that the only thing one can do with a PhD in history is become a professor. 

FYI: https://www.historians.org/ahajobsreport2022

No.

FYI: https://www.historians.org/ahajobsreport2022

FYI: https://www.historians.org/ahajobsreport2022

For a long time, this paralleled my thoughts on the matter. But, as an adviser pointed out, a guaranteed 5-7 years making $30k with excellent health insurance coverage isn't nothing in this prepostapocalyptic hellscape. So I'm not so sure anymore.

Time spent in archives is almost universally necessary for a good dissertation. Where those archives are is field dependent. Make sure you have access to funding to get there. 

Time spent in archives is almost universally necessary for a good dissertation. Where those archives are is field dependent. Make sure you have access to funding to get there. 

Time spent in archives is almost universally necessary for a good dissertation. Where those archives are is field dependent. Make sure you have access to funding to get there. 

A writing sample using the language in your primary and secondary sources.

Even these jobs are not easily gotten anymore.

Just not necessarily in the positive sense 

Yes, this is the only logical answer. Sorry.

Yeah, I'm with @psstein - I don't see enough information to make a good judgement. How much is the difference, and is the financial difference $30k vs $35k or $15k vs $20k - the same difference matters more in different circumstances. How does cost of Living in the respective cities factor in?
(NB: as of this year, most Ivy+ schools are offering $40-45k as a stipend. Unionization works ✊)

Yes, this is the only logical answer. Sorry.

This isn't IU, is it? But this is nonsense, regardless.

Yeah, I'm with @psstein - I don't see enough information to make a good judgement. How much is the difference, and is the financial difference $30k vs $35k or $15k vs $20k - the same difference matters more in different circumstances. How does cost of Living in the respective cities factor in?
(NB: as of this year, most Ivy+ schools are offering $40-45k as a stipend. Unionization works ✊)

This isn't IU, is it? But this is nonsense, regardless.

Yeah, I'm with @psstein - I don't see enough information to make a good judgement. How much is the difference, and is the financial difference $30k vs $35k or $15k vs $20k - the same difference matters more in different circumstances. How does cost of Living in the respective cities factor in?
(NB: as of this year, most Ivy+ schools are offering $40-45k as a stipend. Unionization works ✊)

Yeah, I'm with @psstein - I don't see enough information to make a good judgement. How much is the difference, and is the financial difference $30k vs $35k or $15k vs $20k - the same difference matters more in different circumstances. How does cost of Living in the respective cities factor in?
(NB: as of this year, most Ivy+ schools are offering $40-45k as a stipend. Unionization works ✊)

Yeah, I'm with @psstein - I don't see enough information to make a good judgement. How much is the difference, and is the financial difference $30k vs $35k or $15k vs $20k - the same difference matters more in different circumstances. How does cost of Living in the respective cities factor in?
(NB: as of this year, most Ivy+ schools are offering $40-45k as a stipend. Unionization works ✊)

I haven't yet posted here this cycle. I have to make a decision on two offers and I wanted to have the input of this forum when all is said and done. Maybe someone has faced a similar dilemma between a program offering better financial support and a program offering a stronger intellectual fit. The programs are equal other than this dilemma. I'll be studying twentieth-century US environmental and social history come the fall.
Based on the advice I've gleaned here over the years, my instinct is to go with the program that provides a slight edge in support, via a recruitment fellowship with a release of teaching for three years. The catch is that I wouldn't be able to continue studying environmental history exclusively because the department lacks a specialist in this field.
The other program offers a 12-month TAship package, with built-in research time. I've also been attracted by the year-long editorial assistantship position at the flagship environmental history journal that is housed in the department. This department actually has one of the top collections of environmental historians anywhere. So, not getting to study with this group is a significant downside in going with the program offering the recruitment fellowship. Though I would have this fellowship, and it is no doubt a prestigious and competitive award, I would have to find an outside scholar if I wanted to continue to engage with environmental scholarship.
My experience with this forum has ingrained in my thinking the importance of financial support. Having three years free of a TAship, to set up and start a research plan, to write more for publication, to gain other professional experiences beyond teaching, seems to me to be the way to go. With the caveat that I wouldn't be exclusively an environmental historian upon completion of this program. Am I missing something that would change my instinct to go with the program offering the fellowship?