smallworld

Congratulations.
 
It's very hard to say in most cases, to be honest. It really depends not just on how many decline but on who declines. Your best bet by far is to urge your fellow applicants to decline sooner rather than later, if they're going to decline.
 
Warning: The advice contained in this message is very much in the poster's self-interest.

There's a marked increase from prior years in the number of ABDs entering the job market early. And ABDs don't place as well, because it's a gamble for a school to hire someone who hasn't completed their dissertation. That's not to say it doesn't happen, but the numbers are against the ones who take that chance. Chances are good that you'll find a job of some kind when you finish your degree. Whether or not that's a TT job is yet to be seen (with the decline in TT jobs overall, that is a legitimate concern!).
 
But, rank of school doesn't guarantee anyone a TT job. Certainly, you see the highest ranked research institutions have the highest concentration of faculty from high-ranked schools, and if that's what someone's going for, then that's what they should do. If you can be satisfied with tenure-track and tenure at a mid-tier or unranked school, doing what you do, then it is not as much of a concern. This is a field where people care a whole lot about how they stack up in rankings. Personally, though, I'm not sold on it.

Hey, I thought I would jump in the conversation, albeit a little bit late.
 
I'm really attracted to Northwestern, in part because of the methodological flexibility that a couple of you have mentioned.  I had an interesting conversation with a POI there the other day; he basically told me that doing mixed methods is going to be a bigger challenge than just doing pure quantitative work, but they were very supportive of those who wish to go that route. 
 
I'm also deciding between NW and one other school...the other has higher "rankings," but both seem to place very well, which is what matters at the end of the day, right?
 
As far as where to live, my dad grew up in Evanston, and it really seems that anywhere on the far north side of the city or in the near suburbs is a good place to live.  Just depends on if you'd rather be closer to downtown, closer to the campus, or whatever.
 
I won't be able to attend the official visiting weekend, although I will be going at a later date.  Too bad I won't get to meet any of you there, but have a great time and let us all know what you think of the program!

Made me laugh. http://www.chaosmatrix.org/library/humor/reject.html

So between the Yale and the Harvard ones this may not sound very exciting but I just got into Indiana University. 
 
With this, I only have one school left that I am waiting to hear the official news from - though I know that it will be a rejection. So my cycle is basically over.
 
Thanks GradCafe folks for making this process a lot more bearable. This is, of course, not a farewell. I will be around.

I guess I am just frustrated when people on the board post a rejection with something like "haha got into a better school anyway." My thoughts on this are: ok, good for you, you've made it. Now what is the point of your comment?
Are you arrogant enough to think that if you got into "a better school" you also automatically should be accepted everywhere?
Are you frustrated with this rejection—why would you be if you already got good options? So why being bitter/condescending? 
 
P.S. unless the comment is a joke. Jokes. I get those.
 
 
Edit: grammar

You usually need a compelling reason to defer. Most schools will not permit it just so you can sit home and watch Netflix. Alternatively, you could start at the program this year, and if you still aren't convinced finish up with the terminal masters and transfer (assuming you've gotten admission elsewhere).
 
Of course the question has to be: Why were you applying to programs you wouldn't have been happy to attend?

Much appreciated, all. Truly.
 
I'll check with Cambridge about a discount code, but I can already hear John Haslam laughing all the way from New York….

If I got into Wisconsin, I would happily attend ha ha

My POI from one of my programs is going to be at my current department tomorrow giving a presentation. Does this mean I have to dress like an adult to go to class?

While I applaud IRTheoryNerd (and her/his very confused deer) for stepping in, I think filling this form out when your cycle is over / very close to being over is a good idea to provide the maximum benefit to future folks - especially since it is not possible to edit your posts after a short time period. 
 
Thanks veritaserum for starting the thread.

If I get in anywhere, I'm going in a tracksuit. And of course the colors of the tracksuit will match the colors of the University.

I can't help but feel this is somewhat of a wishy-washy, cop-out answer (not that I blame you, your name is attached to the account and it might seem bad to be on the record as giving a definitive answer either way). I've seen it said (on PSR and here), that it's not even worth it to go to a sub top 25-30 program. Some might even say it's not worth it to go to a sub top 10 program. Rumors also abound that search commitees at highly ranked programs will throw out applications without looking at them if the degree isn't from a top 25-30 program. I'd be curious to know if you've ever seen this happen yourself.

Regardless, while a good advisor is a huge factor, faculty at lower ranked programs (probably) aren't as well connected as faculty at higher ranked ones, so they can't market their students nearly as well. Sure, a rreally good student at a lower ranked program might score a pub in a top 3 journal, which might save his/her application from getting immediately discarded at top schools, but a CHYMPS grad would get the same treatment without such a high ranking pub. Or so I hear, at least.

So, in your opinion, is it really worth it to go to a sub top 30 program, even if you fit in well and have a good advisor? Or will lack of prestige lock you out of TT jobs at highly ranked programs (assuming you have a CV comparable to a CHYMPS grad's)?

OK, you got me. When I was on faculty at Harvard, we held regular pagan rituals in which babies were sacrificed on fiery altars, and the flames of those altars were fed  by the files of job applicants from non-top-10 departments.
 
My recommendation would be to take a look at job placements for just about any top department. I'm in the process of doing so at OSU, and our placements run the gamut from junior faculty at Harvard all the way to places you've never heard of. If our rank as a department or our connections with other faculty members were as determinative as you and others here and on PSR think they are, placement records for top departments would be far, far more consistent than they are.
 
Don't mistake certainty for truth. The truth is, there's a lot of noise, and anyone who tells you something different probably has either never been on this side of the process or has an axe to grind.

What makes me feel comfortable is to be dressed appropriately for the setting. Unless that includes a corset or chaps.

I've never understood why people are always concerned about what to wear to admit visits... it's not like the department/uni has a dress code, and the profs are more interested in your abilities and research than in your sartorial choices. I'd just wear whatever makes you feel comfortable. Personally, I would wear jeans and a tee shirt, because idgaf.

I can't believe I am saying this, but I'd prefer an (expected) bloodbath to silence. Chicago must be about ready to unleash its PhD rejections and MAPSS offers.

Thanks everyone!  The email was from the DGS, sent through her assistant.

I am.  I claim all rights to Gnome's opinion.  I would be willing to negotiate, though.

Thanks everyone!  The email was from the DGS, sent through her assistant.

Thanks everyone!  The email was from the DGS, sent through her assistant.

Thanks everyone!  The email was from the DGS, sent through her assistant.

Thanks everyone!  The email was from the DGS, sent through her assistant.

I am.  I claim all rights to Gnome's opinion.  I would be willing to negotiate, though.