Bayesian1701

Given the same inputs getting into (or not getting into) school A should not affect getting into school B. The probabilities are dependent on GPA, GRE, etc. but not on each other. The probability is not constant in real life but I am trying to get a rough guess. A lot of these schools have basically no public information on acceptance rates, and only a few survey results. I'll look into the logistic regression.

I am trying to get a ballpark figure on acceptance rates to middle and lower tier (30-60 US news ranking) Statistics Ph.D. programs. I found data on acceptance rates on top 30 schools but not a lot on the middle tier programs. I am a female domestic applicant with 3.75ish Math GPA (state school), research experience, a possible undergraduate publication (if it gets accepted), and great rec letters. I am guessing from survey results and the limited information I found that my chance of getting acceptance with funding is around 20% on average for these schools. I want to apply to enough programs to get a 90%+ chance of at least one offer. I figure you could build a binomial model of the number of funded acceptances. I want to know if 20% is a good estimate of the probability of me getting into a middle or lower tier program with funding. Obviously the probability varies across colleges, and this won't be the best estimate. Some Example Colleges : Florida State, South Carolina, Baylor, Virginia Tech, Kansas State

Undergrad Institution: Tier 1 State School Major: Math, minor in Economics, expected graduation May 2018 GPA: 3.67 Type of Student: domestic female Upper Division Courses: Proof(A), Math Stat I (A+), Diff Eq. (A), Programming(B) (horrible professor), Calc III (B), Calc II(A), Linear Alg. (A), Enrolled in: Math Stat II, Real Analysis I, Numerical Analysis, Will take Abstract Algebra and Real Analysis II, and two semesters of graduate statistics next year GRE: Taking in August Undergraduate Research: Independent long term project 10 hours a week for over a year, preparing to send manuscript to journals Jobs: I got paid for my research Plan to apply to: Reaches: Duke, UNC, NCSU, Columbia, Baylor FSU, SMU, Missouri, What are some additional safety schools I could add? I need to be funded. I want to go into Bayesian statistics.