Some Admissions Statistics

[fopdandyhomo]

Because now that apps are in and we're in limbo, I have too much time on my hands and too much anxiety to do anything of value. These stats/graphs are rough estimates as I entered the data by hand and definitely lost my place a few times. (You'll also notice I left out a leap year.) This data is only for PhD programs in history, based on the results survey. Obviously, there is a lot of selection bias and problems with this data, but I wasn't a math major so what do I know. I just did the past five cycles because I thought the economic crash of 2009 and pre-crash data might be irrelevant. Also, the data is very dependent on schools, so hopefully in the coming weeks I'll produce acceptances/rejections/WL per date for a bunch of the schools. My goal is to help reassure people and so we can anticipate when results might arrive. Granted, as we all know, the past doesn't predict the future, but it can help us anticipate what might come.

 

 

Please note that the average acceptance rate over this period is roughly 35%. Sure, some schools are harder to get into than others, this is a heavily biased sample group, and the process isn't random, but I found that number quite reassuring.

 

More to come...

[fopdandyhomo]

 

What I take from this is that your odds of acceptance are slightly better if you get early news and slightly worse if you hear in March. But the main takeaway should be that acceptances and rejections happen throughout the admissions cycle. Just because you don't have good news going into March doesn't mean you're out of it by any means.

Edited January 5, 2015 by fopdandyhomo

[fopdandyhomo]

[fopdandyhomo]

 

Just so you guys get an idea of the sample size I'm working with over time. More people posted their results over time. This is an average of the number of responses (good bad or otherwise) per day in each cycle.

 

Okay, that's it for now. Let me know if there are any schools or any permutations of this data you'd like to see!

[dr. t]

This is data pulled from the results search on GradCafe, yes?

[fopdandyhomo]

Yep! I tried to edit out entries that were just asking for info from other posters. People accepted off the waitlist (or denied) are listed like all other acceptances but I don't think it massively changes the data.

[HistoryMystery]

Crunch time begins this week baby. My body is ready.

[Heimat Historian]

Do you happen to have data broken down by school?  Just curious. 

[fopdandyhomo]

I have data for a few schools but I'm having a hard time figuring out a way to represent it clearly using the various graphing tools at my disposal (I think it's most helpful to separate out acceptances and rejections and show each year separately). I'll keep fiddling though.

Any requests for specific schools?

[Heimat Historian]

Any of these would be great: University of Colorado, University of Indiana, University of Kansas, University of Minnesota, University of Illinois, Rice University, Penn State, SUNY - Binghamton,  Washington University in St. Louis, University of Iowa, UT-Arlington, Brandeis

[fopdandyhomo]

Also, most schools won't start contacting people until next week at the earliest.

In the past, most of the supper early acceptances (i.e. this week) are Oxford or sporadic POI contacting applicants early. If memory serves, TOSU and maybe UCR (there is another one I'm forgetting—maybe Michigan or Wisconsin?) will send out results next week. WUSTL will also mail out rejections by the end of the month and email acceptances.

Of course, everything could be different this year. Frustratingly, some schools will vary year to year by as much as two weeks.

[fopdandyhomo]

On 1/21/2015 at 1:18 PM, Heimat Historian said:

Any of these would be great: University of Colorado, University of Indiana, University of Kansas, University of Minnesota, University of Illinois, Rice University, Penn State, SUNY - Binghamton,  Washington University in St. Louis, University of Iowa, UT-Arlington, Brandeis

Great! I'll take a stab at these tonight.

[Heimat Historian]

I appreciate it.  I attempted some data analysis on my own, but I'm also applying for a PhD in history....

[JTE]

Heimat Historian- Though it may be a bit tedious, I went through the search tool on the "Search Results" page and manually searched for "history" plus the full or partial name of the institutions to which I applied. What I found was there seemed to be a constant trend to when most schools reply, Duke is almost always among the first (the last two years on Jan 24 and 25) with schools like UNC-Chapel Hill and Florida as late as February 21. You may want to look back and seen when they usually start getting back, that should provide you with a good idea as to when you may hear back from specific schools.

[ToomuchLes]

In the past, most of the supper early acceptances (i.e. this week) are Oxford or sporadic POI contacting applicants early. If memory serves, TOSU and maybe UCR (there is another one I'm forgetting—maybe Michigan or Wisconsin?) will send out results next week. JHU will also mail out rejections by the end of the month and email acceptances.

 

 Correct me if Im wrong, but I was under the impression that UCs send out responses in late Feb - early March. Im not applying to UCR, so I could be wrong for that specific school but my other UCs - UCSB, UCLA, and UCI send out responses in a month+

 

Heimat Historian- Though it may be a bit tedious, I went through the search tool on the "Search Results" page and manually searched for "history" plus the full or partial name of the institutions to which I applied. What I found was there seemed to be a constant trend to when most schools reply, Duke is almost always among the first (the last two years on Jan 24 and 25) with schools like UNC-Chapel Hill and Florida as late as February 21. You may want to look back and seen when they usually start getting back, that should provide you with a good idea as to when you may hear back from specific schools.

 

I also do this when I log onto this site. I format it so I can see responses in the last month, and max out the number of results per page to 250. Then I click Control+F and search for Hist. 

[dr. t]

Berkeley does two waves - Last week of January, then third week of February.

[dr. t]

Heimat Historian- Though it may be a bit tedious, I went through the search tool on the "Search Results" page and manually searched for "history" plus the full or partial name of the institutions to which I applied. What I found was there seemed to be a constant trend to when most schools reply, Duke is almost always among the first (the last two years on Jan 24 and 25) with schools like UNC-Chapel Hill and Florida as late as February 21. You may want to look back and seen when they usually start getting back, that should provide you with a good idea as to when you may hear back from specific schools.

 

...or you could try "History -art [school name]"

[maelia8]

I got my notification from Berkeley on February 9th or 10th, as I recall. I guess I was a weird last-minute acceptance from the first wave?

[fopdandyhomo]

Heimat, here are some of your schools. I'll do more tomorrow. I decided not to stress myself trying to find a way to make complicated bar graphs mainly because I think having each year line up coveys the trends well enough. Please let me know if you have a suggestion for a better way to display this data.

 

UColorado-Boulder. There's not much data to go off of.

 

 

 

Indiana University-Bloomington

 

 

University of Kansas: (So little data!!)

 

 

 

University of Minnesota:

 

[fopdandyhomo]

Berkeley does two waves - Last week of January, then third week of February.

 

Is this inside info? Here's my chart for the Cal data:

 

 

I got my notification from Berkeley on February 9th or 10th, as I recall. I guess I was a weird last-minute acceptance from the first wave?

 

 

My guess is that Cal decides as a department either this week or next. I would bet the department's picks have to go through the bureaucracy to be finalized. Some POI can't wait and email their admits prior to the final stamp of approval from the University. The rest hear from the university when everything is official. Perhaps that's why we have the appearance of two waves? Everyone gets rejected at once, though.

 

There are a few outliers for most of the schools I've looked at. I'm assuming this is driven by factors like applicants emailing/calling the department to ask about their status, applicants not checking their status online, and professors' eagerness to reach out to their admits.

Edited January 22, 2015 by fopdandyhomo

[dr. t]

Is this inside info? Here's my chart for the Cal data:

 

Nah, just me eyeballing it back in Dec., but if you look at acceptances only, you'll see what I mean. It does look like they decided to send out earlier starting in 2013 though.

Edited January 22, 2015 by telkanuru