Profile Eval Fall 2021 Stat PhD

[BL4CKxP3NGU1N]

I will be a senior this upcoming semester and am trying to finalize where I will apply (and where I have a decent chance of getting accepted) for Stats PhD programs (open possibly to Biostats as well). I'm mostly interested in doing research in bayesian statistics / machine learning, but that could change. Thanks for your input!

Undergrad Institution: mid-sized private school (~ top 100 math department)
Major(s): Statistics
Minor(s): Math
GPA: Current 4.0

Type of Student: Domestic male

GRE General Test: 
Q:160 (I'm retaking the GRE in August to hopefully get around the 165+ range)
V: 157
W: 5.0

 

Applying to: Statistics PhD

 

Research Experience: will be doing research beginning in a week with a Stats professor using bayesian methods, working with environmental data. Will continue doing research

for the remainder of my undergrad education.

Letters of Recommendation: Nobody super well known, but 2 strong ones (1 from research I'll be doing with him) and 1 decent one

Math/Statistics Grades:  Calc 1-2 (A), Probability and Inference 1 (A), Probability and Inference 2 (A), Regression (A), Intro & Applied R Programming (A), SAS programming (A), 

Linear Algebra (A), Linux/Unix Shell programming (A), Intro to Python (A), Analysis of Variance (A),

Planning on taking: Calc 3 (taking this summer, should get an A), Fundamentals of Mathematics(proofs, taking this fall), Theory of Analysis 1 (taking after this upcoming semester), Bayesian Statistics (this fall),

Data science methods (this fall)

Planning on Applying to: Texas A&M (I'm probably reaching for this one), University of Missouri, University of Georgia, Florida State University, Arizona State University

 

What are my chances of getting into some of these schools, and what are some other schools I should look at? Thanks for your help!

[bayessays]

Since your math background is currently a little thin, some of this is going to depend on your analysis grade and improving your GRE score.  If you can get an A in analysis and improve your GRE score to a 165, I think you are aiming too low and should add a few more schools at the A&M level.  If you stayed at a 160 and got a B in analysis, I think you list is targeting the right range of schools.

Have you looked at biostatistics programs as well?  If you improve your GRE and do well in analysis, I could see you being competitive at schools like Michigan/Minnesota, and I definitely would look at schools like Duke/Vanderbilt/Pitt/Iowa which I think you'll be competitive for regardless.

[BL4CKxP3NGU1N]

20 hours ago, bayessays said:

Since your math background is currently a little thin, some of this is going to depend on your analysis grade and improving your GRE score.  If you can get an A in analysis and improve your GRE score to a 165, I think you are aiming too low and should add a few more schools at the A&M level.  If you stayed at a 160 and got a B in analysis, I think you list is targeting the right range of schools.

Have you looked at biostatistics programs as well?  If you improve your GRE and do well in analysis, I could see you being competitive at schools like Michigan/Minnesota, and I definitely would look at schools like Duke/Vanderbilt/Pitt/Iowa which I think you'll be competitive for regardless.

Thanks for your reply! That makes sense. However, I will be applying to programs at the same time that I'll be taking my analysis course. Do you think that would be a big deal when it comes to admissions?

Also, I have looked into some biostatistics programs but not much. I'll be sure to do some more research on those. Thanks for the suggestions!

[StatsG0d]

I knew someone who majored in math at Ohio State, got a low score on the math GRE (159 I believe), but still got into A&M and other top state schools (although I imagine they are an exceptional case).

@bayessays gave you the best advice. If you did what he suggested, I could see you getting into some schools like A&M, PSU, Michigan, UCLA, Purdue, etc. (the larger state school programs). If you're interested in biostatistics, you might have a decent shot at all programs outside of UW (Harvard and Hopkins are reaches, but I've known students to get into these programs with profiles similar to yours).

[BL4CKxP3NGU1N]

On 6/13/2020 at 10:06 AM, StatsG0d said:

I knew someone who majored in math at Ohio State, got a low score on the math GRE (159 I believe), but still got into A&M and other top state schools (although I imagine they are an exceptional case).

@bayessays gave you the best advice. If you did what he suggested, I could see you getting into some schools like A&M, PSU, Michigan, UCLA, Purdue, etc. (the larger state school programs). If you're interested in biostatistics, you might have a decent shot at all programs outside of UW (Harvard and Hopkins are reaches, but I've known students to get into these programs with profiles similar to yours).

Thanks, that's helpful. I'm not sure why I did so poorly on the quantitative section of the GRE, so hopefully I'll be able to improve it a decent amount when I take it again in August.

Since I will just be starting my Theory of Analysis class by the time applications are due, do you think that will affect my application, or will they basically assume I will perform well based on past performance in other classes? I'm guessing it's something I should probably just address in my SoP's.

[bayessays]

They'll see it as in-progress on your transcript.  If they have questions, they'll ask you for your fall semester grades (since most departments don't review applications until January).  If you do well in the course, I would suggest going out of your way after receiving fall semester grades to send departments your updated transcript.  I don't think you need to address anything in your SOP.  A decent number of people in biostatistics programs and stats programs outside the top 20 come in without having taken analysis.

[BL4CKxP3NGU1N]

Just to get some further advice, I finished Calc 3 with an A this summer, and will be taking Fundamentals of Mathematics (proofs) and a few 400-level stat classes this Fall. In January I'll start my Theory of Analysis 1 class (so the grade in that class will not be able to be reported on applications).

I retook the GRE, but my Q score is still stuck at 160 (even though I was getting 165+ on practices).

Should I retake the GRE, or will my GPA and other criteria be enough to compensate? I'm not exactly a fan of standardized testing but I'll retake it if it'll affect my chances that much (especially for A&M, which is by far my top choice).

Here's a revised list of schools I'm considering applying to (all Stat PhD unless noted):

Texas A&M
UT - Austin
UIUC
Rice
Mizzou
Florida State
Baylor
Duke (Biostat PhD)

Edited August 15, 2020 by BL4CKxP3NGU1N

[StatsG0d]

On 8/15/2020 at 2:12 PM, BL4CKxP3NGU1N said:

Should I retake the GRE, or will my GPA and other criteria be enough to compensate? I'm not exactly a fan of standardized testing but I'll retake it if it'll affect my chances that much (especially for A&M, which is by far my top choice).

I guess I'd probably retake just to not get auto-rejected. Honestly, even a 163 could make a huge difference compared to a 160.

[BL250604]

I agree with StatsG0d. If you're okay spending the money, as the GRE is a screening criteria, the higher the better when under 165 in my view. Otherwise, I think you're fine.

[Casorati]

A 160 in GRE Q could lead to an automatic rejection. For most statistics programs, the average GRE Q of admitted students is over the 90th percentile. So realistically you should aim for 168+ and at the very least, a 165. Higher ranked schools typically require more math, so if you take two semester of real analysis, measure theory and some other proof-based courses with mostly A's in them, you stand a chance of getting into top 20's.

Edited August 17, 2020 by Casorati

[BL4CKxP3NGU1N]

Thanks for the input everyone, that's helpful. I'll take the GRE again.

Assuming I score somewhere between at least 163-165, how does my list of schools look? And are there other good Bayesian programs I could target that I haven't included (and that aren't in California)? Either Stat or Biostat.

Edited August 20, 2020 by BL4CKxP3NGU1N

[bayessays]

31 minutes ago, BL4CKxP3NGU1N said:

And are there other good Bayesian programs I could target that I haven't included (and that aren't in California)? Either Stat or Biostat.

Maybe check out Ohio State and University of Iowa Statistics.

[StatsG0d]

14 hours ago, BL4CKxP3NGU1N said:

Thanks for the input everyone, that's helpful. I'll take the GRE again.

Assuming I score somewhere between at least 163-165, how does my list of schools look? And are there other good Bayesian programs I could target that I haven't included (and that aren't in California)? Either Stat or Biostat.

Pretty much every department will have at least some Bayesian faculty members. It's not necessary to be in a Bayesian department. My department is mostly frequentist, but I do Bayesian research. That said, the advantage of a Bayesian department is that the Bayesian training is embedded in the core curriculum. I had to take time to learn Bayesian statistics on my own.

[BL4CKxP3NGU1N]

Hi everyone, sorry to post again, but I wanted to ask one last time: How realistic is my list of schools, and should I should apply to more safeties? As a brief update to my profile, below are some things that have changed since I first posted my profile:

Calc 3 (A), Currently enrolled in Fundamentals of Mathematics (proofs) and a bunch of stat classes. Taking Real Analysis next semester. Been doing research with Bayesian statistics since June, hopefully submitting a publication soon, but probably not before application deadlines.

Took GRE and scored 162Q 158V 5.5AWA. Nearly half of the schools I'm applying to (like A&M, Rice, and UT-Austin) aren't requiring the GRE for applications this season, so I was wondering if I would have a better chance at those schools now since my GRE seems to be my weak point (aside from not having taken Real Analysis yet).

Schools applying to (all Stat PhD):

Reach: Texas A&M
Target: UT - Austin, Rice, UIUC, Ohio State
Safety: Mizzou, Colorado State, Florida State

Any input would be greatly appreciated.

[StatsG0d]

Sorry to say, but I do not really see you getting into any of those schools. You could maybe get into some biostats programs outside the top ones (e.g., Pitt) that are more focused on applied work, but few stats departments will take anyone without a real analysis grade, and you won't even be able to send a grade before the admissions cycle is up.

If you're really set on a pure statistics program, you're likely going to have to take a gap year and get that GRE score up to a 165+ and at a minimum get that real analysis I grade.

You have to view this from the side of the adcoms. Why should they take their chance on an applicant who has a shallower math background and GRE score relative to their peers? You do not want to leave any shadow of a doubt that you can do PhD in statistics.

[BL4CKxP3NGU1N]

On 10/18/2020 at 7:18 AM, StatsG0d said:

You could maybe get into some biostats programs outside the top ones (e.g., Pitt) that are more focused on applied work, but few stats departments will take anyone without a real analysis grade, and you won't even be able to send a grade before the admissions cycle is up.

I see what you're saying, it would definitely be advantageous to have analysis on my transcript already. Sadly, I didn't start looking into applying to PhD programs until earlier this year so I didn't have as much time to prepare as I would have liked.

On 6/17/2020 at 12:44 PM, bayessays said:

 A decent number of people in biostatistics programs and stats programs outside the top 20 come in without having taken analysis.

Does this still apply? I figured since most of the schools on the list above are outside the top 20 that I would have a decent shot at them, especially since I'll have taken analysis before graduating. Perhaps it would be more reasonable to swap out UT, Ohio State, and FSU with Baylor, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt (or a similarly ranked biostat program)?

[bayessays]

10 minutes ago, BL4CKxP3NGU1N said:

swap out UT, Ohio State, and FSU with Baylor, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt

I think UT is probably the most unrealistic school on your list and I would probably get rid of it first.  CSU is also very competitive for its ranking, so I would consider it far from safe.  If you have some money to spare, I would keep most your list besides UT and shoot for those programs, but I definitely think it is a good idea to add schools like Baylor/SC/Vandy, which I think is closer to a "match" than the schools you have listed.

Importantly, I think you should target schools where you can at least get your fall grades submitted - most programs will allow you to update, and if a school has an application deadline in January you'll be able to submit those grades.  Real analysis is important, but statisticians are supposed to be good at extrapolating and if you have a 4.0 from a decent school and get an A in the math classes you're taking (including proofs), I think most people will fill in the blanks that you're going to do reasonably well in RA and have it done before you start the program.  I'd be pretty surprised if you didn't get into some school out of FSU/SC/Baylor/Mizzou.  I also think you should not submit your GRE score where possible and possibly choose schools based on that, as I would look at your profile and probably interpolate a score higher than 162 Q, so I think the GRE will hurt you.