0% Confidence of Acceptance

[oldmangandhi]

Its great to hear that this year might be a little less competitive, in terms of the number of people applying. It gives me immense hope.

 

I was wondering if anybody knows from where this rumor has originated. Who has heard that this year there might be fewer people applying? Is there any strength to this rumor? Can you send a link to some article or blog post where this is mentioned?

 

Getting an acceptance this season is my plan A,B,C, and D. Failure is not an option for me. I would appreciate any news telling me that this year might be less competitive. 

[Ramus]

I was wondering if anybody knows from where this rumor has originated. Who has heard that this year there might be fewer people applying? Is there any strength to this rumor? Can you send a link to some article or blog post where this is mentioned?

 

I can't remember where exactly this originated, but I know someone recently speculated that a lower number of applicants might have something to do with Rutgers extending its deadline. I think that the original remark about a lower applicant pool arose from a similar situation, with someone trying to account for something they saw on a program website. And while I share 1Q84's hesitation about reading too much into these signs, I think -- if I, too, can speculate for a moment -- there might be a chance that fewer applicants this year.

 

While I haven't seen definite proof of this in any article, I think it's probable that the number of applications to PhD programs in English Lit mirrors the downward trends that other postgraduate programs have seen. A number of recent articles have talked about the five year dip in law school applications (see below). Now, I realize that law and lit programs are very different , but law is experiencing many of the same issues that we're seeing in the humanities right now -- most importantly, a glut in the number of graduates and thus a poor job market. Are undergraduates in general starting to think that limited job prospects simply aren't worth the time and effort that a postgraduate degree requires? 

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/12/17/law-school-enrollment-falls-to-lowest-level-since-1987/

[Dr. Old Bill]

Oh, I'm probably responsible for the rumor. I've been talking about it on here for months now. It IS just a hunch, and I've made that very clear each time I've mentioned it. I first noticed it a few months ago when the number of active GC users seemed a heck of a lot lower than in years prior. I would venture to guess that there are maybe only 25-30 of us posting in this forum regularly, versus closer to 100 last year (and similar numbers for years prior). This is not scientific in the least -- just an observation. Add to that the strange decision by Rutgers to extend their deadline by a week, and there's still nothing scientific about the assumption, but is potentially a sign that they are holding out for more applicants before they close it off. These two things could just be complete coincidences. There's really no way of knowing until several months from now, when application statistics are released. But given the recent doom and gloom over the outlook on humanities Ph.D.s, and other general factors, I have a gut feeling that there are fewer applicants overall.

 

For what it's worth, this doesn't mean that anyone with a mediocre application is more likely to get in. There are countless GC threads from years past that indicate how adcomms "could have" accepted 50 candidates, but "were forced" to choose just 20. Having a lighter field might just mean that they "could have" accepted 40 candidates, but still "are forced" to choose...just 20.

 

But hope is a powerful stimulant. A little dose of it can help get you through the inherent doldrums of the waiting period.

[1Q84]

Literally-- excuse the SoCal expression-- I'm on cloud 9 right now because my Shakespeare professor (who is cited in the Norton and notoriously difficult as a professor) said she thought I was ready for the next level of grad study. Can I put her on every adcomm please? Jeez.  

 

The number of applications, in my opinion, has no effect on my acceptance. If my application is interesting and worth doctoral study, it will be accepted from a pool of 10 or 10,000. 

 

Congrats! Must feel very nice to receive that affirmation from a well-respected prof. 

 

Ah, well, that's for sure. I didn't mean to imply that a large amount of apps is some kind of desperate move for everyone who does it, though it may have been on my part.

 

Oh, I'm probably responsible for the rumor. I've been talking about it on here for months now. It IS just a hunch, and I've made that very clear each time I've mentioned it. I first noticed it a few months ago when the number of active GC users seemed a heck of a lot lower than in years prior. I would venture to guess that there are maybe only 25-30 of us posting in this forum regularly, versus closer to 100 last year (and similar numbers for years prior). This is not scientific in the least -- just an observation. Add to that the strange decision by Rutgers to extend their deadline by a week, and there's still nothing scientific about the assumption, but is potentially a sign that they are holding out for more applicants before they close it off. These two things could just be complete coincidences. There's really no way of knowing until several months from now, when application statistics are released. But given the recent doom and gloom over the outlook on humanities Ph.D.s, and other general factors, I have a gut feeling that there are fewer applicants overall.

 

For what it's worth, this doesn't mean that anyone with a mediocre application is more likely to get in. There are countless GC threads from years past that indicate how adcomms "could have" accepted 50 candidates, but "were forced" to choose just 20. Having a lighter field might just mean that they "could have" accepted 40 candidates, but still "are forced" to choose...just 20.

 

But hope is a powerful stimulant. A little dose of it can help get you through the inherent doldrums of the waiting period.

 

I don't think you're far off, though. I, obsessed, went back through the Fall 2014 applicants thread, which sits at 200+ pages. I know that that it runs until April and includes the January - March feverish-posting-during-acceptance period, but the Fall 2015 thread is at a comparatively small 20 pages (for reference, aforementioned thread was at page 59 at this time last year).

 

I did not consider the shrinking offered positions, however... that is making me significantly more nervous now.

[Metaellipses]

There's also the trickle down effect of the poor applicant pool. I know at Rutgers, which typically accepts students who have also applied to, and been accepted at, schools like Harvard and Yale, our top picks are frequently also the top picks of those schools. And frequently (although not always: we have a crazy number of people who have turned down Cornell and Brown, in particular) those students opt to choose those schools over Rutgers, which means we're reaching deeper into our waitlists. So if applicant pools are lower everywhere, then waitlists have a much higher chance of getting turned into acceptances - as long as cohort size isn't shrinking. I'm sure in some places, cohorts are just made smaller. But I know here, and at a lot of other schools in the Rutgers consortium (such as Princeton, Columbia, NYU, etc) faculty won't let cohort size shrink below a certain number, because then they'd have trouble getting classes approved (due to attendance minimums). There may be a small amount of shrinkage within a certain range (12 applicants instead of 14), but I doubt it would be too severe for that reason - even with reduced application pools.

 

That being said, I think the net effect of the poor applicant pool would mostly be the difference between a waitlist and an acceptance, not a decline and an acceptance. As jhefflol said, a good app is a good app. Schools usually have a fixed number of waitlisted students (the number here generally matches the number of acceptances). Also, a disclaimer: I've been involved in the admissions process here only from the backend: meeting with accepted students, arranging campus visits, informing faculty if someone is likely to accept (to make room for a waitlisted person if they don't) etc. But I have no official knowledge of how applicants are selected.

Edited December 20, 2014 by Metaellipses

[dazedandbemused]

I actually asked my DGS a few months ago to give me a rundown of how the selection process works because I was so curious and the process is so unbelievably opaque. If I had to throw an opinion in the ring, I think the perceived lack of applicants this year might be us finally seeing the result of schools that are shrinking their acceptance numbers and advising their students not to go to grad school. Top  50 schools have been steadily lowering their acceptances for a few years now. My program is shrinking in the fall and they are going to get even smaller over the next couple of years--and they've always had HUGE cohorts.

 

Then again, I know gradcafe has earned a reputation in the last couple of years, so maybe everyone is just steering clear (although I've had some great times on this forum).

[Dr. Old Bill]

 

Then again, I know gradcafe has earned a reputation in the last couple of years, so maybe everyone is just steering clear (although I've had some great times on this forum).

 

Really? I don't know about this. Do tell!

[dazedandbemused]

Really? I don't know about this. Do tell!

When I mentioned it to the first years, they almost all said that they didn't want to be part of "that toxic website". And to be fair, there have been some crazy moments, and I know people lose their minds slowly about the results board. A lot of people in my cohort and the year above me were active on here, and we still talk about some of the trolling. But, as I said, I think the interesting conversations and clandestine information sharing more than made up for it.

Edited December 21, 2014 by dazedandbemused

[Dr. Old Bill]

Wow, that's interesting to hear. Other than a few bad apples and cranky posts, most of the old threads I've read here seem fairly equanimous. I actually don't understand the obsessing about the results board...it doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Then again, check in with me in five weeks or so, and we'll see if I'm singing the same tune...

[xolo]

Hi dazed, you seem to be saying that, yes, there are fewer applicants, not just a perception of fewer? GC certainly is not perfect but I find it a useful source of information and way better than most web boards. I wouldn't consider it toxic, it has some really fantastic moderators that try to be upbeat.

[dazedandbemused]

No, I have absolutely no data on applicant numbers. I'm saying that the number of *acceptances* have been going down for awhile and perhaps applicants are finally reacting to the trends.

[Catria]

I am not a humanities guy, but I can definitely feel how the "crapshootiness" (please excuse my poor choice of a word) of PhD admissions processes would compel people to apply to large numbers of PhD programs, and hoping for just one acceptance. And said processes can render people neurotic. My budget limited me to 12 applications; I would probably have submitted more if I had the money (would have applied to Case Western, Harvard, MIT, Stanford, Caltech, UCD and Arizona State as well)

[fancypants09]

1Q84 and WT---add me to the "not a spring chicken" list! Early thirties here, meaning that I'll be the same age as many of the professors (hell, I have friends who have graduated with PhDs and are now professors, in different fields but still). I did have professor friends who asked me if I were sure I wanted to enter the tenure-track seeking market at the springy age of forty (that is if I finish "on time"). But what kept me going were assurances from my former professors that they believed in me and that I am not old for this. 

 

I don't have a plan B either. I mean, I won't find it too difficult to keep a roof over my head and food in the fridge, but I've put everything on the line for this. I quit my job, I stopped "thinking" and "writing like a lawyer," I have spent thousands of dollars on books and articles in my intended field of study (limited availability of any academic texts out in Korea), hundreds of hours reading, writing, and talking to lit folks. Friends and family have told me it's now time to let go because I gave it my best. But that doesn't mean that I'm scared shitless of being rejected by all of the programs to which I applied. Not to mention that one of the programs is my alma mater (school and department), so a rejection from there would be all sorts of painful. 

 

I'm grading my students' finals for now so am somewhat occupied but being on break with family is somewhat daunting. On the one hand I'm happy to be here but on the other hand I just want to stare at a blank wall or something for a few days to de-stress, rather than having to force holiday cheer over the exhaustion and uncertainty of the future. 

[1Q84]

Not to fan the flames or anything, but I found it curious that one program I registered for (but haven't submitted yet--it's due early Jan) has been sending me almost daily reminders to finish the app, ask questions, etc. and also emails to promote the program and highlight its strengths. Probably not out of the ordinary but I haven't received a fraction as many emails from all the other programs to which I applied. <takes off paranoid-over-analysis hat>

[smg]

Not to fan the flames or anything, but I found it curious that one program I registered for (but haven't submitted yet--it's due early Jan) has been sending me almost daily reminders to finish the app, ask questions, etc. and also emails to promote the program and highlight its strengths. Probably not out of the ordinary but I haven't received a fraction as many emails from all the other programs to which I applied. <takes off paranoid-over-analysis hat>

 

Sounds like paranoia to me.  It seems like different programs have different flavors and one of the flavors is chock full of daily reminders and the others aren't. 

[1Q84]

Sounds like paranoia to me.  It seems like different programs have different flavors and one of the flavors is chock full of daily reminders and the others aren't. 

 

Oh I know. I'm just here chattering away by myself in a corner, waiting for the end of January.

[madamepsychosis]

Hello all, I'd like to register general solidarity with your angst about applying for PhD's. I was rejected from all of the research programs I applied to last year so I'm full of nerves. February cannot arrive fast enough.

Edited December 28, 2014 by madamepsychosis

[Katla]

I was stupid and trawled through the Results thread for the programmes I'm applying to and depressingly few Is come up. Optimism just now is at a low. I'm pretty confident I'll bounce back but am I the only one fantasising more and more frequently about the bleaker outcomes as we get nearer to the notification times?

[1Q84]

I was stupid and trawled through the Results thread for the programmes I'm applying to and depressingly few Is come up. Optimism just now is at a low. I'm pretty confident I'll bounce back but am I the only one fantasising more and more frequently about the bleaker outcomes as we get nearer to the notification times?

 

Count me in. I'm really, really hoping for word back by end of January (from my top choice) to put me out of my misery! I honestly don't think I can make it until end of February with no news.

[Dr. Old Bill]

Count me in. I'm really, really hoping for word back by end of January (from my top choice) to put me out of my misery! I honestly don't think I can make it until end of February with no news.

 

That's my hope as well, really. I'd be mostly okay with only getting one acceptance, provided I get it early, I think. The longer I have to wait, the more frazzled my nerves will inherently be.

 

Right now I'm feeling confident / positive / optimistic about things...but if I have nothing concrete in one month's time, I'm sure my confidence will be shaken quite a bit.