Conditional Probability of Acceptances

[PittPanther13]

My first 2 decisions I have received have not gone well, and I'm a bit worried and discouraged that I might not get in anywhere. So now I am wondering, given that I have 2 rejections from Washington and John Hopkins, how are my prospects of getting into my remaining schools?

 

My remaining schools to hear from are UNC Chapel Hill, Harvard, Cal Berkeley, and Pitt, all of which I applied for the PhD Biostatistics program. I'm worried that with the exception of Pitt, the other 3 schools are very similar in applicant pool and competitiveness for spots as Washington and John Hopkins. Given that I wasn't given as much as a wait-listing, I'm worried these 3 may give the same result as other 2 rejections. 

 

A little background on my application:

 

-3.36 undergrad GPA, from mid-size public university in North East with overall great reputation, but not so much in my major which was mathematical sciences. 

 

-3.8 graduate GPA, from University of Pittsburgh in Masters Program in Biostatistics

 

-Worked at Medical University as a student biostatistician for summer internship, helped on several projects, co-author on manuscript which is currently being considered for Primary Care journals. Presented at North American Primary Care Research Group Conference in New Orleans, in December to present poster based on work done on manuscript. 

 

-LOR from department chair who is very well respected and known throughout statistics community. Other 2 LOR from sampling methods professor, and other from supervisor at summer internship. 

 

If anyone could provide an outside view of my chances it would be much appreciated, regardless if the outlook is good or bad.

 

[SANDIEGO]

Speaking from personal experience, I wouldn't overthink this too much despite the emotional maelstrom of the application process. Getting into a PhD program is often about finding a good fit with a professor, and there's still the possibility of that happening. Obviously it doesn't bode well to get rejections, but anyone applying to top schools are taking a shot in the dark, even many of the best candidates. Best of luck on getting at least 1 acceptance!

[marco_math]

 Your profile seems fine, I agree with SANDIEGO on this one. Best of luck with the rest of your applications! 

[biostatdude]

I was also rejected from Washington but was admitted to UNC Chapel Hill, so I definitely wouldn't say that a rejection from Washington and Hopkins would mean a rejection from the other schools.  

[33andathirdRPM]

I can't help it.

 

Let A denote the event that you are not accepted to Washington or John Hopkins.

Let B denote the event that you are accepted to at least one of the programs you have applied to, other than Washington or John Hopkins.

 

I think it's safe to assume that A and B are independent events. (This is a relatively big assumption. However, anecdotal evidence supports the assumption that programs do not confer with one another for acceptance purposes.)

 

Then, P(B|A) = P(BA)/P(A) = [P(B)P(A)]/P(A) = P(B ).

 

So, based on the assumption that acceptance at a particular program is not affected by the acceptance outcomes at other programs, and given the information that you were not accepted to Washington or John Hopkins, your probability of being accepted to at least one of your programs you have applied to other than Washington or John Hopkins is the same is it would be without the given information.

 

 

Don't freak out. You still have other places to hear back from. Try to keep in high spirits.

Edited January 23, 2013 by 33andathirdRPM

[Biostat_Assistant_Prof]

UW and JHU are in the top 3 hardest programs to get into in the country. You have a better chance at the rest of the school (probably excluding Harvard) than you did at those first two, so stay optimistic. Worrying will do you no good anyways, as it is out of your control now.

I too have been rejected from UW and also Minnesota now. Those were the very first apps I sent in, both of which did not reflect my fall term of which I earned a 4.0, earning an A in 2 key math classes... I have 9 school left to hear back from, and while I'm naturally worried to some extent, I'm still optimistic and realize I still have next year!

Edited January 23, 2013 by Noco7

[Shostakovich]

Harvard is probably a longshot for you if you haven't gotten an interview from them yet (and it is for almost any typical applicant really, I didn't even apply to their PhD) and I have similar doubts about Berkeley since their program is so small. I think you have a solid shot at UNC since their program is very big and the applicant caliber is probably not as strong (although probably similar I agree) as Harvard, JHU, and UW.

 

How come you didn't include more schools below the top 4-7 or so (but higher than Pittsburgh) on your list? Do you prefer Pittsburgh over those schools?

[PittPanther13]

I would've liked to apply to more safety schools, however the application fees were getting to be a bit too much on my wallet. Luckily, the Pitt application was free since I am already a student in the masters program. I regret not applying to Emory and/ or Minnesota as they are both solid programs, and I liked that Emory was close to the CDC in Atlanta. Had I had more time/ money, I would've applied to a couple more schools. 

 

Now that Hopkins and Washington are out of the picture, I'm really hoping for Cal Berkeley to miraculously come through. Does anyone know what their typical applications received/ acceptances/ PhD slots are per year? I figure Harvard is out of the question too as I definitely did not receive an interview invitation. 

 

I was also rejected from Washington but was admitted to UNC Chapel Hill, so I definitely wouldn't say that a rejection from Washington and Hopkins would mean a rejection from the other schools.  

 

Congrats on the UNC acceptance, it seems that their decisions have been very spread out and they kind of have been going with rolling admissions. Did they notify you via email or postal service, and when did you submit your application?

[cyberwulf]

Getting into a PhD program is often about finding a good fit with a professor, and there's still the possibility of that happening. Obviously it doesn't bode well to get rejections, but anyone applying to top schools are taking a shot in the dark, even many of the best candidates. Best of luck on getting at least 1 acceptance!

 

As I've said before, this is simply untrue for graduate school in biostatistics. Top candidates get into ALL the best places they apply, and there seems to be remarkable agreement between the candidate rankings of various departments.

 

I can't help it.

 

Let A denote the event that you are not accepted to Washington or John Hopkins.

Let B denote the event that you are accepted to at least one of the programs you have applied to, other than Washington or John Hopkins.

 

I think it's safe to assume that A and B are independent events. (This is a relatively big assumption. However, anecdotal evidence supports the assumption that programs do not confer with one another for acceptance purposes.)

 

Then, P(B|A) = P(BA)/P(A) = [P(B)P(A)]/P(A) = P(B ).

 

So, based on the assumption that acceptance at a particular program is not affected by the acceptance outcomes at other programs, and given the information that you were not accepted to Washington or John Hopkins, your probability of being accepted to at least one of your programs you have applied to other than Washington or John Hopkins is the same is it would be without the given information.

 

 

Don't freak out. You still have other places to hear back from. Try to keep in high spirits.

 

A and B are clearly not independent; if they were, this would imply that knowing that someone was accepted at UW/Hopkins would tell you nothing about their probability of getting in at, say, Pittsburgh, when clearly the probability would approach 1. What I think you're trying to express is that, if C is a variable denoting candidate strength/qualifications, then A and B are independent given C.

 

To the OP, you can basically count Harvard out; their applicant pool is even stronger than UW and Hopkins. I would rate your chances of admission at UNC and Berkeley as OK, but not great. UNC might be your best chance, but you could be looking at an unfunded offer.

Edited January 23, 2013 by cyberwulf

[biostatdude]

Congrats on the UNC acceptance, it seems that their decisions have been very spread out and they kind of have been going with rolling admissions. Did they notify you via email or postal service, and when did you submit your application?

 

Thanks! I received an email from the grad school notifying me that an admission decision was made and they directed me to the application webpage to view the decision, and then a few days later the Department of Biostatistics student services manager emailed me. And I submitted my application the first week of November.    

[Shostakovich]

I would've liked to apply to more safety schools, however the application fees were getting to be a bit too much on my wallet. Luckily, the Pitt application was free since I am already a student in the masters program. I regret not applying to Emory and/ or Minnesota as they are both solid programs, and I liked that Emory was close to the CDC in Atlanta. Had I had more time/ money, I would've applied to a couple more schools. 

 

Now that Hopkins and Washington are out of the picture, I'm really hoping for Cal Berkeley to miraculously come through. Does anyone know what their typical applications received/ acceptances/ PhD slots are per year? I figure Harvard is out of the question too as I definitely did not receive an interview invitation. 

 

 

Congrats on the UNC acceptance, it seems that their decisions have been very spread out and they kind of have been going with rolling admissions. Did they notify you via email or postal service, and when did you submit your application?

 

If I recall correctly, Berkeley was a bit weird in that they require you to have a masters degree to apply to the PhD in Biostats, so you have an advantage there. Their average PhD student GPA's seemed a bit skewed too at least for the class entering in 2011 (far below the other top 6-7 programs typically reporting 3.75+), maybe this was because they only accepted 9 students. Here's what I found:

 

 

Fall 2011 Admissions Statistics:

Admissions Ratio: 9/58 (15%)

Average GPA of admitted applicants: 3.34

Average GRE scores of admitted applicants: 

Verbal: 620 (89%); Quantitative: 790 (91%)

 

http://sph.berkeley.edu/students/degrees/areas/biostat1.php

Edited January 23, 2013 by Shostakovich

[PittPanther13]

If I recall correctly, Berkeley was a bit weird in that they require you to have a masters degree to apply to the PhD in Biostats, so you have an advantage there. Their average PhD student GPA's seemed a bit skewed too at least for the class entering in 2011 (far below the other top 6-7 programs typically reporting 3.75+), maybe this was because they only accepted 9 students. Here's what I found:

 

 

Fall 2011 Admissions Statistics:

Admissions Ratio: 9/58 (15%)

Average GPA of admitted applicants: 3.34

Average GRE scores of admitted applicants: 

Verbal: 620 (89%); Quantitative: 790 (91%)

 

http://sph.berkeley.edu/students/degrees/areas/biostat1.php

 

Hmm, thank you for this. I didn't know they required a Masters to apply for the PhD, so that does make me feel like I have a better chance and less people to compete with. If the statistics are similar this year, I think my chances wouldn't be too bad, and hopefully I could sneak in with an acceptance. 

 

CyberWulf: thank you for your input, I think I agree that there isn't an independence in the decisions. I'm sure most schools have similar selection criteria and candidate rankings, that's why I was concerned that I wasn't going to be high enough on the lists to get in to my final 3 (excluding Pitt). Hopefully, Cal and/ or UNC will take a chance. 

 

Biostatdude: Congrats again, I submitted my application in early December so hopefully they will review mine soon, I'm pretty sure they haven't looked at it yet as there has been no change from the "submitted" status. 

[33andathirdRPM]

Welp, there goes my attempt at keeping things light-hearted.

[applyin&prayin]

didn't wanna create another thread basically on the same topic but I'm on the same boat. And now it seems like upenn has sent out decisions too. not many options left for me. #feelsbadman

[sisyphus1]

didn't wanna create another thread basically on the same topic but I'm on the same boat. And now it seems like upenn has sent out decisions too. not many options left for me. #feelsbadman

im right there with you.

i really think there's a good chance i won't get accepted anywhere this year.

[Biostat_Assistant_Prof]

im right there with you.

i really think there's a good chance i won't get accepted anywhere this year.

Sisyphus, If I recall, you said you were wait listed by UW... I think that could mean you have a good shot at getting accepted to some lower ranked school.

[sisyphus1]

Sisyphus, If I recall, you said you were wait listed by UW... I think that could mean you have a good shot at getting accepted to some lower ranked school.

UW was the second least competitive school I applied to ("lowest" school I applied to was Brown biostats). So I am quite nervous.

[Biostat_Assistant_Prof]

UW was the second least competitive school I applied to ("lowest" school I applied to was Brown biostats). So I am quite nervous.

Where else did you apply? I also applied to Brown, but haven't heard anything from them but a reminder in very early January that one of my LORs hadn't been received (this was before their jan 5th deadline).

[sisyphus1]

On 1/23/2013 at 9:02 AM, Noco7 said:

Where else did you apply? I also applied to Brown, but haven't heard anything from them but a reminder in very early January that one of my LORs hadn't been received (this was before their jan 5th deadline).

stat <- CMU, Berkeley, Upenn, Duke, Yale

biostat <- UW Seattle, Brown, Johns Hopkins, Harvard

 

According to the results page it seems like quite a few people have heard back from Brown already.

 

best of luck to both of us!

[health_quant]

From what I understand, Brown only admits a few students from the visitation/interview day and waitlists (most of) the rest. I don't know how their yield compares to other programs though, so an eventual acceptance may be possible even without attending the interviews now. Also, keep in mind that Brown's program is tiny, so for those of us who already have experience in stats, they may place more of a premium on fit than some of the larger schools.

 

I'll post an update if Brown mentions anything interesting during this year's interview day.

[PittPanther13]

On 1/23/2013 at 8:18 AM, applyin&prayin said:

didn't wanna create another thread basically on the same topic but I'm on the same boat. And now it seems like upenn has sent out decisions too. not many options left for me. #feelsbadman

 

Where else are you waiting to hear back from? I'm guessing a lot of people are in the same situation of not getting acceptances from UW and Hopkins just based off of the massive amount of applications they received this year. I knew the schools were competitive and prestigious, but I did not think I would be competing with over 250 applicants at Washington. Hopefully the applicant pool is less crowded in the remaining schools. 

 

On 1/23/2013 at 9:15 AM, sisyphus1 said:

stat <- CMU, Berkeley, Upenn, Duke, Yale

biostat <- UW Seattle, Brown, Johns Hopkins, Harvard

 

According to the results page it seems like quite a few people have heard back from Brown already.

 

best of luck to both of us!

 

Good luck with Brown, maybe you'll get lucky and you'll get in off of Washington's wait list too. I'm sure they did not wait list that many people, so it could be a short list.

[applyin&prayin]

waiting to hear back from upenn, cmu, duke, chicago. Hope people update if they have info about these schools

 

biostat i did harvard, jhu, and uw seattle.

[PittPanther13]

I'm kinda wondering whether Harvard (and UNC for that matter) have reviewed all applications yet. From what I've seen there's only been that 1 person who's posted that they've received an interview from Harvard for biostats. I'm assuming there has to be more. Also, the status on my application has never changed from submitted, which makes me wonder if it has been sent for review yet. I know for John Hopkins they changed my status when it had been sent for review, and then again when they had made the decision. I'm unsure if all schools have that stage in the status, but if not, then there should be more interview invites to come. Hopefully, you hear back from Harvard for an interview. Unfortunately, I have no idea about the regular statistics applications

[wine in coffee cups]

Are you not aspiring statisticians who need to redirect anxious energy?

 

Scrape database results for stats/biostats applicants from past years. Parse out GPA/GRE/subject/citizenship when provided. Match results on those keys to track outcomes for individuals over the entire application season (maybe with manual cleanup to account for typos/transpositions). Use more complete posted profiles here and on mathematicsgre.com to augment and correct results.

 

Then you have some data to actually estimate the conditional probabilities. Non-random sample and has errors, but better than nothing. You'll learn valuable skills on the way there.

[PittPanther13]

I've found that looking up the actual numbers are usually more discouraging than anyone could prefer. Although Cal had a nice 9/58 acceptance rate according to their website, when you dig in further they state that they normally only take 3 (hopefully more this year) for the PhD slots for biostats. As you can imagine, that's not a very encouraging number given the amount that will be applying. I could dig more into the profiles of accepted students, but that is a little too exhaustive for my efforts. I found that the websites provide enough info, and that the estimate I would get by getting all the other info would not be much more accurate or encouraging.