Predictions

[johndiligent]

I WANT to play. but I just can't. It seems like such hubris! Kaynahorah!

[socialcomm]

Only applied to 3.

Accepted: Possibly one, but most likely without funding

Another I'm very likely just to get the form rejection letter emailed in March/April, if not earlier. The last, I'm unsure of. If I could at least get an interview I'd be happy.

[Pamphilia]

I WANT to play. but I just can't. It seems like such hubris! Kaynahorah!

I agree. This smacks of bad juju to me.

[expressionista]

This changes depending on my confidence level at the moment. I applied to four schools, and I'm currently predicting:

One is almost definitely a rejection, with only a very slight chance of acceptance. I'd say there's a 15% chance I'll be accepted.

One I'm totally 50/50 on. I just have no idea. Part of me feels like this is the school where I'll end up though, just going by premonition (which I don't really believe in).

The other two, I feel like I really should get into, based on the admissions statistics of those programs, but I'm still not sure. I'd give myself a 75% chance at one and 85% chance at the other.

I really feel like I have no idea where I stand. Like I could get into all 4 or rejected by all 4 and wouldn't be too suprised.

[modernity]

I agree. This smacks of bad juju to me.

Me too, but living vicariously through everyone else is fun.

[melusine]

well, given that i'm an oddball case all around (european with a canadian BA applying to american programs with 1% rates of acceptance), i think i'll be more than realistic when i say that i hereby officially predict an all-round rejection. once you put it this way, everything's always a pleasant surprise.

or, to quote one of the greatest philosophical authorities.. ahem: "You know, you come from nothing - you're going back to nothing. What have you lost? Nothing!"

[shai]

I'm not predicting here for myself, bu tI like to toy around with numbers.

Applied to 10 programs.

Average acceptance rate - 5%

Average rejection rate - 95%

chances that I will be rejected at all places = (95/100)^10 = 0.598

Chances I won't get rejected from all places => 1-0.598 = 0.402

That means 40.2% of getting in. Not something I would bet on if I was in Vegas, but still a little hope.

[ridgey]

I'm not predicting here for myself, bu tI like to toy around with numbers.

Applied to 10 programs.

Average acceptance rate - 5%

Average rejection rate - 95%

chances that I will be rejected at all places = (95/100)^10 = 0.598

Chances I won't get rejected from all places => 1-0.598 = 0.402

That means 40.2% of getting in. Not something I would bet on if I was in Vegas, but still a little hope.

Ooooh I like what you did with your numbers

I agree. This smacks of bad juju to me.

Nah, I reckon juju is invoked in the thinking of what might happen, not in the recording of those thoughts.

[Chi-square]

I'm not predicting here for myself, bu tI like to toy around with numbers.

Applied to 10 programs.

Average acceptance rate - 5%

Average rejection rate - 95%

chances that I will be rejected at all places = (95/100)^10 = 0.598

Chances I won't get rejected from all places => 1-0.598 = 0.402

That means 40.2% of getting in. Not something I would bet on if I was in Vegas, but still a little hope.

Shai, I think that only works if there is an equal chance that anyone would make that 5% pool, and it really depends on what's in your portfolio. For example, someone with my dreadful GREs scores would have even less chance of getting in to one of your proposed schools.

[ridgey]

Shai, I think that only works if there is an equal chance that anyone would make that 5% pool, and it really depends on what's in your portfolio. For example, someone with my dreadful GREs scores would have even less chance of getting in to one of your proposed schools.

I'm sure Shai realises that's not the actual probability. I read it as humorous and optimistic all at once

[Chi-square]

I'm sure Shai realises that's not the actual probability. I read it as humorous and optimistic all at once

Forgive me. Being waitlisted for a month and a half has made me quite a crotchety pessimistic person.

[catilina]

I have a question: on what basis are these predictions being made? I have the objective qualifications for anywhere (800 verbal GRE, 3.9 gpa from a top 20 undergraduate school, a law degree, published articles, etc.), but the acceptance rates at the top schools seem so low. Also, I'm much older than your typical applicant and I think that must work against me. I don't see any way to accurately assess my chances. I'm just going to assume I won't get in anywhere and if I do, I'll be pleasantly surprised.

[alexis]

I have a question: on what basis are these predictions being made?

I don't think there is much basis other than some kind of "gut" feeling based on prestige of programs/perceived fit/etc...and trying to guess helps ease the crazy uncertainty we will be facing over the next few months. It's nice to think we have some sort of knowledge on our chances--and can make sense out of the nonsensical--even if in reality, we have absolutely no clue what will happen

Edited December 8, 2009 by alexis

[Eli-Why?]

Oh, hell.

Of the 5 PhD programs in English Literature to which I'm applying,

-New York University will accept me.

-Columbia will accept me, but ditheringly, late in the game.

-Duke will waitlist me, but won't come through.

-Harvard and Chicago won't think twice about shredding my application.

If I correctly anticipate affirmation of my own paper-based mediocrity, I think I will find that oddly comforting.

[hamster09]

i don't know... i feel anxious like in a freaking out mode!!!!

some people got interviews already and i have not...

i wondered too if it had to do with the program...sigh***

i wish UCSFFFFF will take me...but that is wishful thinking

[Chi-square]

i don't know... i feel anxious like in a freaking out mode!!!!

some people got interviews already and i have not...

i wondered too if it had to do with the program...sigh***

i wish UCSFFFFF will take me...but that is wishful thinking

I completely understand where you're coming from. The only school left to decide has me on a wait list. I can only hope that the students accepted at Tufts also got into an ivy league school and declined. It sucks that our destiny is decided by a group of people who define us by our grades and test scores.

[hamster09]

I completely understand where you're coming from. The only school left to decide has me on a wait list. I can only hope that the students accepted at Tufts also got into an ivy league school and declined. It sucks that our destiny is decided by a group of people who define us by our grades and test scores.

i think it will be best to think about it in january. it seems like most of the program i applied to just finished their deadlines and are probably organizing the adcom...

[Chi-square]

i think it will be best to think about it in january. it seems like most of the program i applied to just finished their deadlines and are probably organizing the adcom...

The program starts in January.

[brouhaha]

Some days I am a total pessimist and am convinced I'm wasting absurd amounts of money on these applications. On others I have a strange sense that I just might get in somewhere. Anyway, here are my predictions...

Applied: 12

Rejects: 8

Waitlists: 2

Acceptances: 2

I really will be happy with one. Just one. Any of them. Please.

[JohnBom]

I am not feeling terribly confident because my writing sample is not the strongest. I simply didn't have enough time to re-work it and I am submitting a half-baked version of my thesis. My SOP should be fine, even though it is nothing spectacular. I am feeling most confident in my LOR's and scores. I also think I already a chunk of research experiences for an undergraduate.

Here are my predictions.

Applied: 9

Immediate Admit: 0

Waitlist: 2

Eventual Admit: 1

As somebody has said earlier, better be pessimistic than disappointed in the end.

Good luck to everyone.

[NsciApp]

Applications: 9 neuroscience/biosciences programs

Competitive at: 4??

not really sure....

Responses so far: 0 (applications submitted; due dates Dec 1-15)

update: I had a very good informal phone interview, and I've thought a little more about this... so

almost a sure thing: 2

have connections, good fit, good chance: 3

I will call my mother with tears of joy in my eyes: 4

[dzk]

update: I had a very good informal phone interview, and I've thought a little more about this... so

almost a sure thing: 2

have connections, good fit, good chance: 3

I will call my mother with tears of joy in my eyes: 4

You're ridiculous. With your statistics, you should get an interview at every school you apply to. Seriously, two first-author publications? Your humility makes me want to barf.

[cheesethunder]

im at this weird stage where im scared shitless to get in anywhere......the thought of moving schools cities countries etc, i will miss my apartment! & being aroun dhardcore academics will be such a change from the lax people i hang around now ahhh

im applying to 7 i predict 4. just because i think my major gpa will shine through.....and my sops i put a little of my soul into.

[Timothy Vallier]

I applied to 7 PhD music composition programs.

I will probably get into 2 schools

I will maybe get into 3 schools

In a perfect world I would get into all of them!

[hamster09]

i got a phone call just now from UNC BBSP for a january interview!!! im so excitedDDDDDDD!