The_Last_Thylacine

Yeah, I've been thinking of this as well! I applied to 17 programs, in which I figured that the "average" acceptance rate was 6.5% (Michigan is 2%, but Michigan State is 15%), if chosen randomly. 17 x 6.5% = 110.5%. There's something wrong with the probability, but I haven't worked it out. Because 100% means certainty, and you can't have it go above that; moreover, it is a priori uncertain, so it can't be the upper bound, 100%, either.
I haven't done all the conditional probabilities, either. Because, as you've highlighted, if you're above 50 percentile at one school, that is a very different statistic. If you're above 70 percentile at one school, it is likely you're above 70 percentile at many schools. The corollary is that if you're below 50 percentile, your odds diminishes quickly, because they almost always admit only 70 percentile. Whatever strength in your application that justifies your acceptance at one school is likely to justify at another school; whatever is weak is likely to be considered weak elsewhere.

Same here! Congratulations!

I didn't get an email, but when I just checked my status at Florida State it says I'm accepted.
So, you know, 1. WOO HOO!, but also 2. If anyone applied to FSU, maybe check your status on the website.

Interesting thoughts! I don't know if I have enough information to assume that I am in the 50th percentile. I also don't know enough about the applicant pool to be this optimistic yet!

Interesting thoughts! I don't know if I have enough information to assume that I am in the 50th percentile. I also don't know enough about the applicant pool to be this optimistic yet!

OH NO! 

Any acceptance will be all the sweeter for you this year at least. 

That's all folks! I'm sure UT has a hidden waitlist. They receive a massive amount of applications per year. 

Firstly: incredible user name!  

Secondly, I feel the same way about the first acceptance. I will feel so much better for the whole application season if I know that I can go somewhere. As I see it, the worst case scenario involves being waitlisted, only to be rejected on the deadline after a protracted period of waiting and anxiety. 

Every time you see an email notification though... :'(

Agreed! Just need that first acceptance and all will be okay (or at least it will feel that way for a time). I hate the thought of waiting another year and doing this all over again, but am almost counting on it as an inevitability. Would love to be proven wrong, and hopefully sooner rather than later!

Every time you see an email notification though... :'(

Every time you see an email notification though... :'(

I can relate. However, I don't resist. 

I posted about this in another thread but I went to UNM for my undergrad and took courses with the grad students. They used to send out their results pretty late, a few years back it was nearly April 1 and AFAIK it's always past March 1. So I wouldn't worry about getting your results for awhile. If you have any questions about UNM I'd be happy to help.

Eeek. I applied to UNM too and I'd be dying if I saw an NM number come through. In fact, since I submitted every time I see an unknown number on my screen, my breath pauses... Alas, always a telemarketer for me. 

I've been spending a lot of time with people. The time consumption of preparing my writing sample overtook my life enough to where just being around people has been nice. And since the semester is starting and grad schools don't really see my final semester, I'm taking my last real opportunity to take a bunch of classes that just sound fun. (Which is still all of the philosophy courses on offer, but also some zanier stuff like The Devil in Literature.)

That's great! I'm glad you're taking advantage of being done to pursue some things that are just good for your mind and soul. You and @desolesiii, and many others, actually. I'm trying to do the same. Adding some poetry reading to my daily activities and I've started (an attempt at) journaling again. 
I've also got my full time job to keep me busy but I'm actually amazed at how much time I have now that I'm done with apps. Once the semester starts back up, the classes I'm auditing will take back some of that time, but it's amazing how much time a 9-5 leaves you with when you don't have other things or obligations going on!

Oh my gooses! Northwestern offers $35,000?!! ...

Mine UR schools are DePaul, Boston U, and Vanderbilt. And, to be honest, DePaul is among the programs I hope to get into most.

Most Canadian schools aren't on the top 50 ESW list (and surprisingly, also not on the top 50 US list!?!?!), so I guess those are technically "unranked".  Mine are: Boston U, Washington Seattle, McGill, Alberta, Calgary.  I might also apply to a couple really really unranked Canadian schools (Guelph, York) because we desperate, fam.

Thank God! I wrote mine in Comic Sans, and I was worried.

I actually don't think pedigree counts for much.

Dang dude. 17 is a ton of applications. I hope you're getting fee waivers. 

It certainly is a lot
Part of the motivation is that I know a guy who applied to over 20 places, yet he didn't get accepted anywhere. I'm told that you shouldn't apply to fewer than 12. I'm kind of trying to come as close as I can to guaranteeing an offer. (When you total the probabilities based on acceptance rates, like 0.3%, 0.5%, 1%, 2%, 6%, 14%, etc., you want the total to be well above a coin flip!) With 17 schools averaging an acceptance rate of 4% I thought the best way to improve my odds is simply applying more broadly.
And yes, I got 4 app fees waived. It is a huge burden off to save $250+ ... I wish someone told me about it sooner. I might have been eligible for more.

P.S.
Of course, your individual likelihood of acceptance might be far higher than the base rate. It depends on how you stand relative to the other applicants. Also, if you could at least intuitively guess probabilities of getting in, you might also want to consider the probability of getting in to [some university X] given that you were accepted at [some university Y]. Because if you get 1 offer, that might suggest you have a solid application by any school's standard; so, if you get 1 offer you are likely to get 2-4 other offers.