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Hi all, I did a search to no avail. It looks like no one has posted the AHA's new jobs report. https://www.historians.org/publications-and-directories/perspectives-on-history/january-2017/conflicting-signals-in-the-academic-job-market-for-history In year's past I remember this being controversial--it shouldn't be! There's a reason our professional association studies and publishes new reports every year. A few things to note: the graphs include *all* jobs for History PhDs (full-time positions, including tenure-track jobs, non-tenure-track jobs, and term-limited fellowships, as well as positions beyond the professoriate), not just tenure-track. Only 9% of jobs went to ABDs. For those entering your final years in the program, this might be helpful info to consider when deciding how to split your time between apps to postdocs/non-tt jobs/vaps vs. tt jobs. Jobs beyond the tenure track increased! No doubt, this is partly due to the incredible work of the AHA.

Crom- You might be interested in the most recent AHA jobs report, from Feb. 2016. This does some pretty detailed analysis on job trends. The one outstanding problem I see with this analysis (which compares graduating PhDs to job openings) is that it does not account for how many assistant professor jobs are filled by postdocs and assistant professors, which is the rule rather than the exception in many departments. https://www.historians.org/publications-and-directories/perspectives-on-history/february-2016/the-troubled-academic-job-market-for-history The report from 2014: https://www.historians.org/publications-and-directories/perspectives-on-history/september-2014/the-academic-job-markets-jagged-line As the first report notes, 587 full-time academic jobs had been advertised during last year's season (2015). As far as I can tell, the authors do not specify if that number includes visiting assistant professor and postdoc positions, and it *does* include senior openings (i.e., Associate and Full Professor). The 2014 report specifies that 345 positions during that year were full-time assistant professors. Thus far this year, there are 197 listings for full-time assistant professor, according to an H-Net advanced search of "Assistant Professor" in "history", limited to the U.S. There are also some stray art history jobs in that 197, maybe 20. https://www.h-net.org/jobs/job_search.php?all=history&none=art&position_id=58&country_id=209 The Chronicle lists 118 full-time faculty and research positions in History so far this year. https://chroniclevitae.com/job_search?Search=&cid=cpw_jobsearch&facetClear=1&job_search[employment_type]=Full-time&job_search[keywords]=history&job_search[position_type]=41&utf8=✓ The AHA lists 99 assistant professor positions (including visiting), but their list is less comprehensive than others. http://careers.historians.org/jobs?keywords=assistant+professor&sort= But your question is: how can you compare year to year? What do these numbers mean? I'm not entirely sure, but here's my best guest for this year vs. previous: My understanding is that the prime posting period just closed. There will be new positions posted through the rest of October and November, but much fewer than have already been posted. If we think that there are about 200 assistant professor jobs out there, my guess is by the end of the season there would be no more than 50 more. So, ~250 total. That's my best guess, if the 197 number from H-Net is relatively accurate (and also, obviously, the most generous of the available data). In truth, there are probably more jobs than are listed on H-Net, because none of these sites are comprehensive. Then again, that 197 number also includes some jobs that aren't full-time assistant professor in art history -- as I said, there are some art history, some history of nursing that are really for PhDs in nursing, etc. Hope that helps, and good luck.

I think that you'll need to provide more detail on your education and training to get specific help. What fields have you worked in thus far? What did you study, (or what are you studying), during your undergrad years? Are you wanting/willing to pursue further education or training? From the information you gave, I could think of dozens of careers -- but you seem to want to pursue something in counseling. What recommendations did you receive from the career counselors?

I'll second (and third, and fourth) this. (There is exactly one field that doesn't have academic placement problems at my institution: Africa.). But again, the point is not to scare, but to inform. Of course, people can try to approach these numbers by saying that they just need to publish that much more, present that much more, be that much more dedicated, network that much harder, etc. That's not my own takeaway, and it's a relief not to look at all of my friends and colleagues as rivals in an ever-more-frantic rat race -- a very unfortunate downside to the intense professionalization of PhD programs that has been presented as a response to the TT jobs crisis. But, I suspect that the AHA publishes job stats every year because they *do* change, it *is* expected that professors and departments reflect on them, and there *are* positive ways of addressing the info. I know the AHA is actively reconsidering what the PhD is for and how doctoral students can forge the degree in a way that best suits their professional and intellectual pursuits rather than pidgeon-holes them into an CV-inflating competition. The NEH is doing this as well, on a larger scale. I think it's great work and well worth current students' notice.

Lindsey, I'd defer to a past poster that complained about the "exploitation Olympics" (or whatever the phrase is). The point is not to say that PhDs are not privileged in certain respects, or that they are the most exploited. More specifically, You assume that all grad students get a living wage with full benefits. This is simply not true. Benefit packages are not always "full," depending on how you define that. You also may lose these benefits if, for instance, you need to withdraw while researching abroad due to the constraints of your funding. Finally, many schools across the "ranks" provide a salary that cannot pay the bills in the expensive cities in which the university is located. You can absolutely accept a "fully funded" offer to a grad school and, by year 2, realize that you must earn more money to continue, pay healthcare costs out-of-pocket, etc.

TakeRuk and MathCat both make good points. I certainly wouldn't decide to go to School A being dependent on the new hire. Most of the searches my department (humanities) have conducted have gone through though the schedule can, sometimes, be long. I think this might be different in the sciences. (There are very few postdocs in humanities). But, I'd second TakeRuk's advice to be skeptical until a start date is announced; I shouldn't have been so optimistic about the search working. With that in mind, a number of students in my dept were 3rd or 4th years when their would-be adviser was hired. So, the fact that a potential new prof might come in during your second year isn't really the problem, it's whether they come at all. If they do, I wouldn't worry about not working with them. MathCat -- I've never heard of the no-taking-new students at the beginning in my humanities program. If anything, its the opposite -- new hires often take more students, because they want to mentor, because it looks good for tenure requirements, and because they are filling a trendy/needy field.

That's academia for you! One other thing. You mentioned: Of course, you don't know who it is, which is a gamble. But, I'd say it's less risky. If the search is already scheduled for next year, it will probably go through. Having a new person come in your second year isn't really a problem - you still have time to take courses with them before your quals, and plenty of time to develop a relationship before starting your dissertation. But, it sounds like you have a great option with B and a possibly good option with A, if it comes through.

MollifedMolloy, Yes! You might look into AHA's new programs, one of which provides money/aid to help schools make grad student jobs in non-teaching areas (admin, tech, etc.) I believe Jim Grossman pioneered it. This enables grads to progress in their PhDs while also building a resume in non-academic/non-teaching fields. Here's a link to some similar ideas: https://www.historians.org/publications-and-directories/perspectives-on-history/november-2013/in-admin-four-history-phds-discuss-their-alt-ac-careers I've tried to take on research, admin, and volunteer roles throughout my PhD. It hasn't always worked, but oftentimes I find that I can earn some extra $$ or gain a few new skills, ease some job-related anxiety, and actually get more done on my PhD because my academic time is structured (and precious). Even work related to your PhD can help, if only because its puts you in touch with people outside your immediate circle/industry. Oftentimes, advisers' professional networks are deeply embedded in academia, where there are lots of people looking for work. But, if you take a part-time position in an archive, at a publishing house, or even tutoring, you will meet people in other industries while also adding lines to your academic CV. Depending on your field, you could: take a proofreading/copyediting exam and do freelance work in your field at your institution's academic press (yes, you could get doubly paid to read books), tutor in your field, volunteer ESL with migrant aid centers and adult learners in the area, volunteer/work to translate documents or statements for non-profits, hospitals, and law firms, volunteer for research positions in campus research centers, do part-time work in your campus's student services (if you're interested in admin) PR unit (if you're interested in media/communications) or development office (if you're interested in finance). I think these opportunities are win-wins: you get more money, more skills, more friends/contacts, with minimal injury to your progress. It has eroded my social time a bit, but I have also made new friends in these volunteer and work positions, so I think it's worth it. Best of luck!

If these are the B school choices, I'd say you're in good hands. Placing 4/5 is pretty phenomenal in most humanities fields. Even if this guy does retire while you're there, you might be able to work as his advisee. Retired profs can be primary advisers at my institution, and sometimes its ideal--they have few other responsibilities, an established name, and don't engage in the day-to-day politics of academia. Can the prof at School A really have much better than 80% placement? Even so, I'd say you'll be just fine at School B!

MathCat, you're right. My thinking on this also has changed a bit knowing that the OP was waitlisted, that the visit day was for short-listed candidates vs. admits, and that the OP's meeting with the POI was at a talk and not a one-on-one about OP's research (some prospectives get in touch with POIs about their applications in advance). I guess I was allowing some wiggle room, for this reason: Visit Days can be a charade. Professors often go out of their way to be really kind and attentive to students, which is great, but not necessarily representative of their actual relationships with advisees. I tend to think that the romance of the Visit Days skews the picture for admits. After all, for departments, the event is about recruitment. Some grads and professors do have the best interest of the admits in mind, and place that first. But many (I'd say most) are trying to convince you to come. So, a professor that stays away from the event but has already gotten to know an admit and had personal contact with her about her research would not bother me that much. Especially if that professor's students think she's great, and her placement rates were exceptionally high. Still, fuzzylogician is also right -- it's risky to enter a department where you can only feasibly work with one person, especially if there's any risk that the person will leave. I'd say, if any prof is a flight risk, its a top prof at a top school with great placement that doesn't get along with her colleagues. Also remember, though, that advisers needn't be those with 100% research overlap. It can be someone whose work is close enough and who you get along with wonderfully. Finally -- I'd say the advice to disregard general placement rate is spot-on. The placement that matters is your adviser's, and even then its hard to project forward onto your future. I'd say: first, get in touch with the adviser and get a sense for who they are. Maybe re-contact some of their students and ask about this issue in particular, or whether her departmental conflicts have been a problem for the students. Only compare placement rates between prospective advisers and (maybe) among students in your field in both departments. One last question -- how did you get along with the profs at school B? You say that they are in your general area of interest. Did you feel like you could trust them? That's most important.

This is very important. If I could give advice to every admitted student, it would be 1) conduct one-on-one conversations, outside of Visit Day, with multiple students and former students of your adviser/field (so as to get a sense of your committee). Ideally, these students would be advanced, because they'll be able to tell you about life after coursework, when advising, funding, etc. is most critical. 2) know placement rates for your adviser & field within the department (assuming you want a TT job. I would also advise to ask about support for alternative careers, but that's another matter). You seem to know about 2, but 1 is equally important. If you can confirm with multiple students that a professor is very, even exceptionally, dedicated to students, and kind, I'd say you have a great and rare adviser on your hands. It's true that the adviser isn't everything. However, it is also true that the lack of a dedicated mentor can jeopardize your training, happiness, and career. Track down more students and try to figure out if this is just about department politics. If it is, ignore it. If its a sign of general difficulty that impacts her advising, you have another matter on your hands. FWIW, two of the faculty at my top-ranked department have issues with departmental admissions right now. This is largely because they (understandably) think fewer PhDs should be admitted due to declining job numbers. They have both stopped actively recruiting for this reason. But, they are hands-down the most supportive people on our faculty when it comes to grad students. Sometimes the faculty that have spats with other faculty are the ones that advocate for their students the most.

@AbrasaxEos, brilliant post. I also hope every admit and early-career student read's @Joseph45's post, especially this part: This realization was the turning point in my own mind. When I entered my program, even as part of a couple, it was easy enough to say: I love my field so much that I am willing to sacrifice a stable income and viable career path for the next 5 years. But about three years in, I realized that my PhD was also a significant sacrifice I was forcing my partner, family, and children to make. Of course, there are benefits: you have a flexible schedule that may allow more contributions to raising your children, and you might enable your partner to travel place they otherwise wouldn't have seen. But the pursuit of one pleasure may come at the expense of very real, very beloved, others.

Wow - I didn't know that! In that case, OP, I would put Davis at the top of your list. Having two top BL scholars, plus the resources of the UC's and the proximity to other scholars/your region of study makes it really stand out.

I'd recommend UC - Davis. There's Andres Resendez and Lorena Oropeza. Plus, if you're in Davis, you could likely have some working relationship with Brian Delay at Berkeley or Stephen Haber at Stanford.

Is there anyway you could do both (are they in the same city)? Is the Admin program full-time? If not, I think its reasonable to do a part-time professional program and the first year of your PhD at the same time. It'll be busy, but I know some people that did something similar. Then, you could re-assess at the end of the year. Alternatively, you could ask the PhD program if its possible to defer one year (this is sometimes done for really prestigious fellowships like the Rhodes & Marshall). Having professional training or experience in Higher Ed Administration would be a very good compliment to your PhD and could make you desirable for part-admin/ part-faculty jobs in research centers on campus. I think these are actually some of the best gigs in academia today.