I guess you know that intellectually, but emotionally it does take its toll. I even followed up with the POI I spoke with initially, and now absolutely no answer. It really doesn't look good. I was generally hopeful when I sent in my applications, but one possibly negative result does indeed affect the momentum you had going in.
Also, I have read about very qualified people not getting in during a cycle for all the reasons you stated. A negative response really doesn't necessarily say anything about the individual, as you say. I'm hopeful for you too and I'm sure this year your applications were even much better.
Good luck, and do keep me posted on where you get in!