HomoLudens

accepted at OSU via portal

Actually, the odds are a bit worse than that because many of the same students will be accepted at more than a few programs. So, even if all programs have an acceptance rate of 5% (say, 10/200 students) but aim for a class of 5 students, you apply to 20 programs, and there are 400 students applying to those programs, your odds of getting in can be as low as 25%. Obviously the numbers aren't quite as straightforward as that, since there are more students applying to more programs, sometimes an abnormally high proportion of acceptees matriculate, etc., but the point is that the rate of matriculation is a better indicator of your overall likelihood of acceptance

I hope you get into a great program. Just because you have met a pile of necessary conditions, I hope it is clear we make no pretense to claim to have found jointly-sufficient conditions for your acceptance. If you have 20 applications in at schools with about a 5% acceptance rate, you've got better odds than a coin-flip!
May the odds be ever in your favor

Don't worry about it. You will be fine with that GPA. Are you at UToronto? Canadian schools tend to have less grade inflation, so having your gpa isn't that big of a deal. 

I’m the Irvine LPS waitlist- I’m nervous, I hope it is a positive signal for the rest of my applications, that it wasn’t crazy to hope for admission somewhere...

"Keywords" might be a bit too reductive. Certainly they don't read all 15-30 pages of everyone's writing sample. It is more likely that they will read the first and last paragraphs of each sample to ascertain 1) your area of interest, 2) your superficial writing ability, 3) your capacity to frame a philosophical problem in a small space, and other similar things.
In any case, once they narrow down the number of applicants to, say, the top 50, someone on the committee definitely will read your whole sample. There is plenty of anecdotal evidence on this site where people say that so and so person at program x told them that they loved their sample. (I am sure that the person couldn't care less about an good undergraduate philosophy essay, let alone love one, but I digress). I also have talked to the current DGS at my MA program, and it is guaranteed that your sample will be read by someone more or less in its entirety.
So no, they don't simply have keywords in mind to weed out applicants. You need to have a really good sample from start to finish.

"Keywords" might be a bit too reductive. Certainly they don't read all 15-30 pages of everyone's writing sample. It is more likely that they will read the first and last paragraphs of each sample to ascertain 1) your area of interest, 2) your superficial writing ability, 3) your capacity to frame a philosophical problem in a small space, and other similar things.
In any case, once they narrow down the number of applicants to, say, the top 50, someone on the committee definitely will read your whole sample. There is plenty of anecdotal evidence on this site where people say that so and so person at program x told them that they loved their sample. (I am sure that the person couldn't care less about an good undergraduate philosophy essay, let alone love one, but I digress). I also have talked to the current DGS at my MA program, and it is guaranteed that your sample will be read by someone more or less in its entirety.
So no, they don't simply have keywords in mind to weed out applicants. You need to have a really good sample from start to finish.

"Keywords" might be a bit too reductive. Certainly they don't read all 15-30 pages of everyone's writing sample. It is more likely that they will read the first and last paragraphs of each sample to ascertain 1) your area of interest, 2) your superficial writing ability, 3) your capacity to frame a philosophical problem in a small space, and other similar things.
In any case, once they narrow down the number of applicants to, say, the top 50, someone on the committee definitely will read your whole sample. There is plenty of anecdotal evidence on this site where people say that so and so person at program x told them that they loved their sample. (I am sure that the person couldn't care less about an good undergraduate philosophy essay, let alone love one, but I digress). I also have talked to the current DGS at my MA program, and it is guaranteed that your sample will be read by someone more or less in its entirety.
So no, they don't simply have keywords in mind to weed out applicants. You need to have a really good sample from start to finish.

Unlike SOPs, which are short and very formulaic, I am skeptical about the value of looking at a writing sample example. Theoretically, you should model your sample after a paper published in a peer-reviewed journal.
If I were to send you a paper on Kant that got me into UCSD, but your AOI is philosophy of mind, there would be no value in you looking at my sample. You should try to model your writing after scholars that your like and who are in your field. 
With SOPs, you don't see that kind of writing outside of grad apps, so it is good to read a few examples.
You should give your sample to anyone and everyone who is willing to read it. I used a term paper, and got feedback from my professor. I presented the paper at a conference, I gave it to multiple friends, I organized a graduate application workshop with my MA cohort and had some of them read it, etc. I probably had 6 different sets of eyes on it from inception to submission. 

Unlike SOPs, which are short and very formulaic, I am skeptical about the value of looking at a writing sample example. Theoretically, you should model your sample after a paper published in a peer-reviewed journal.
If I were to send you a paper on Kant that got me into UCSD, but your AOI is philosophy of mind, there would be no value in you looking at my sample. You should try to model your writing after scholars that your like and who are in your field. 
With SOPs, you don't see that kind of writing outside of grad apps, so it is good to read a few examples.
You should give your sample to anyone and everyone who is willing to read it. I used a term paper, and got feedback from my professor. I presented the paper at a conference, I gave it to multiple friends, I organized a graduate application workshop with my MA cohort and had some of them read it, etc. I probably had 6 different sets of eyes on it from inception to submission. 

Unlike SOPs, which are short and very formulaic, I am skeptical about the value of looking at a writing sample example. Theoretically, you should model your sample after a paper published in a peer-reviewed journal.
If I were to send you a paper on Kant that got me into UCSD, but your AOI is philosophy of mind, there would be no value in you looking at my sample. You should try to model your writing after scholars that your like and who are in your field. 
With SOPs, you don't see that kind of writing outside of grad apps, so it is good to read a few examples.
You should give your sample to anyone and everyone who is willing to read it. I used a term paper, and got feedback from my professor. I presented the paper at a conference, I gave it to multiple friends, I organized a graduate application workshop with my MA cohort and had some of them read it, etc. I probably had 6 different sets of eyes on it from inception to submission. 

Unlike SOPs, which are short and very formulaic, I am skeptical about the value of looking at a writing sample example. Theoretically, you should model your sample after a paper published in a peer-reviewed journal.
If I were to send you a paper on Kant that got me into UCSD, but your AOI is philosophy of mind, there would be no value in you looking at my sample. You should try to model your writing after scholars that your like and who are in your field. 
With SOPs, you don't see that kind of writing outside of grad apps, so it is good to read a few examples.
You should give your sample to anyone and everyone who is willing to read it. I used a term paper, and got feedback from my professor. I presented the paper at a conference, I gave it to multiple friends, I organized a graduate application workshop with my MA cohort and had some of them read it, etc. I probably had 6 different sets of eyes on it from inception to submission. 

Unlike SOPs, which are short and very formulaic, I am skeptical about the value of looking at a writing sample example. Theoretically, you should model your sample after a paper published in a peer-reviewed journal.
If I were to send you a paper on Kant that got me into UCSD, but your AOI is philosophy of mind, there would be no value in you looking at my sample. You should try to model your writing after scholars that your like and who are in your field. 
With SOPs, you don't see that kind of writing outside of grad apps, so it is good to read a few examples.
You should give your sample to anyone and everyone who is willing to read it. I used a term paper, and got feedback from my professor. I presented the paper at a conference, I gave it to multiple friends, I organized a graduate application workshop with my MA cohort and had some of them read it, etc. I probably had 6 different sets of eyes on it from inception to submission. 

Don't worry about it. You will be fine with that GPA. Are you at UToronto? Canadian schools tend to have less grade inflation, so having your gpa isn't that big of a deal. 

Don't worry about it. You will be fine with that GPA. Are you at UToronto? Canadian schools tend to have less grade inflation, so having your gpa isn't that big of a deal. 

CMU is a really great place for machine learning. My roommate is a post-doc in their Material Sciences dept. and he works a lot on machine learning. There seems to be a lot of opportunities to learn from experts in the field. 

So what ought we think about this news?    1) I think that we should all be encouraged that we spent so much time working on our materials and developing ourselves as academics preparing to enter an advanced degree. Applying is no easy feat, and I am sure that we have all grown because of the process.   2) We should also be resigned to the fact that once we submit our applications, they are in the hands of the Ad-Com Gods. Regardless of the total number of applicants, we still have no control over the process. Just be glad that you did your best and that we all are going through this together.   3) Finally, our worth as thinkers and people does not depend on whether we get into a PhD program this year. You are all incredibly talented people who will do well in any field. So use this opportunity to think about what careers outside of philosophy will give you a sense of fulfillment and drive.    These are the best suggestions that I have to not follow the path of despair.

I wonder if this will mean that it will take longer to hear back from schools. Since there is no GRE at 99% of places, it will be more difficult to cull the initial pool of applicants. I wouldn't be surprised if some decisions were pushed back two or more weeks. 

I'm extremely confident in my sample, but I think it may be a bit of an outlier. It's very specialized (philosophy of machine learning), which limits the number of places I can send it to a bit. However, I've received an R&R from my first choice journal and I already have an offer from Cambridge HPS so I am feeling like I'm justified in applying to just a handful of elite places that have faculty who can support my research interests. 

How confident do y'all feel about your writing samples? I spent months and months on it (basically since last May). I am using a grad seminar paper on Kant, realism, and belief. I presented it at a conference, I had profs read and give feedback, I gave it to current PhDs for detailed feedback, and I had members of my MA cohort review it. It is also under review at a journal (it got rejected at one place, but the editor said that it reads like a high quality graduate seminar paper, which I take as a positive).
 
If I hadn't gone through all of this, I would probably be more of a wreck over applications. I know it is still a long shot, but I feel confident that if the ad-coms look at my sample that they will be impressed.
Where do all of you stand in regards to your samples?

So what ought we think about this news?    1) I think that we should all be encouraged that we spent so much time working on our materials and developing ourselves as academics preparing to enter an advanced degree. Applying is no easy feat, and I am sure that we have all grown because of the process.   2) We should also be resigned to the fact that once we submit our applications, they are in the hands of the Ad-Com Gods. Regardless of the total number of applicants, we still have no control over the process. Just be glad that you did your best and that we all are going through this together.   3) Finally, our worth as thinkers and people does not depend on whether we get into a PhD program this year. You are all incredibly talented people who will do well in any field. So use this opportunity to think about what careers outside of philosophy will give you a sense of fulfillment and drive.    These are the best suggestions that I have to not follow the path of despair.

Oh, you're right. I thought Yale and Princeton are not admitting.  Sorry about that.

If my memory serves me well, didn't CMU require GRE this year?
Btw, HomoLudens, are the following the schools you are applying to this year? I believe many of them are not admitting funded PhD.
UCSD, Princeton, Pitt, Toronto, UT Austin, NYU, Boston University, UCR, UCLA, Cornell, IUB, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Harvard, Vanderbilt, Yale, UNC, UVA, Wisconsin, USC, Boulder, Johns Hopkins, SUNY Stony Brook
 

I finished submitting last week and thought being done with applications would be a relief, but I'm right there with you. My anxiety has shot through the roof now that it's all out of my hands. I'm hoping programs will be able to start issuing decisions in February as they have in past years so it's only one more month of nothing but dread, though I know that may be pushed back given increased volume of applications and the pandemic. 

I wonder if this will mean that it will take longer to hear back from schools. Since there is no GRE at 99% of places, it will be more difficult to cull the initial pool of applicants. I wouldn't be surprised if some decisions were pushed back two or more weeks.