I wish I knew the answer to that question (incoming jumbled thoughts). Assuming none of my remaining waitlists come through, I'm leaning towards one of the MAs but not decisively. This process is brutal, and while my odds after finishing one of those MAs would be good they aren't pristine. To be in at any PhD program is an accomplishment. I also resent the pedigree-bias that I have against Maryland, which makes me uncomfortable with declining their offer.
On the other hand, I should probably scrap for every advantage that isn't unethical, knowing how difficult this business is, and it certainly wouldn't be unethical to choose, say, Brandeis over Maryland.
As for the the last question, I think I would be very likely to accept Madison or Bloomington should they come knocking, but I don't think I would immediately say yes to any of them. I would want to at least sleep on it, assuming it isn't April 15 and I don't have time to do that.