GCDad

Arcadia here we come! Good luck to all....

sunT - You are correct. The lack of independence of candidates does increase your chances (e.g. if the same 100 candidates interviewed at 5 schools, each of which only accepted 20 students a year, they would all get in somewhere. So your chance for acceptance would be 100%, not what you would get with my formula (1 - .805 = 67%). So my formula should be considered a lower bound. Anyway, daughter mortified that I'm posting on this board, so I will retreat to the sidelines...

We got some intel from one of our interviews that the school enrolls roughly 22% of those interviewed. Assuming all interviewed applicants about equally qualified (a big "if"), and that the 22% rate is similar at all schools, your odds of being matched can be calculated based on the number of places you interviewed: Probability of being rejected = 1 - probability of being accepted = 1 - 22% = 78% Probability you are accepted to at least one program = 1 - the probability you rejected everywhere = 1 - .78(number of interviews) So, say you are a beast like AJM19 interviewing at 9 schools, her (or his) odds of being accepted somewhere would be: 1 - .789 = 89% Again, some candidates are probably objectively stronger applicants, so it's not a random draw from those interviewed. AJM19 might be a particularly strong candidate even among those called in for interviews so her (or his) odds might be higher than 89%.

Friggin' Stanislaus. Whomp, Whomp....

Well...if there are 40 schools and each one got 180 applications, that would be 7,200 total applications. If each GC hopeful applied to, say, 5 schools, that would be 7,200/5 = 1,440 applicants. If each school granted 50 interviews, 50 x 40 schools = 2,000 interviews, or 1.39 per applicant. There are some crude assumptions in there (e.g. all schools equally desirable and attract equal number of applicants), the biggest one being all applicants are equally qualified. If half the applicants were lunkheads and had no business applying, then they should get 0 interviews and the other half twice as many (2 x 1.39). So the unknown parameter is the percentage of lunkheads applying.....

What are your reactions to this hypothesis: The posters on the GradCafe are the most qualified and dedicated candidates for placement in GC grad schools. Casual applicants wouldn't even be motivated enough to find the board, let alone post. Therefore, people on this board would be considered in the top X% of candidates with respect to the strength of their applications. Trying to gauge the number of interview invitations of a certain someone I know with the number of interview invitations of the people on this board.