Predictions

[ridgey]

I feel the need to revise my predictions. The applications I submitted yesterday were far better than the ones from a couple of weeks ago. SOP and writing samples so much stronger. BUT, these are also more competitive programmes. I'm feeling irrationally confident. It's a nice feeling actually. I think I'll be able to handle disappointment in February better than despair from now until then.

So now: Confident about 2, reasonable chance at 3, unlikely but hopeful at 3.

Hmmm. That is worse than my original prediction.

[Msimeth]

Applied: 7

Accepted: 4

Rejected: 3

[jacib]

Am I the only one who feels like they don't really know? I applied to tough schools with a random subject... but I feel like I might be one of a very small number of applicants asking to work with certain professors which makes me competitive? I know one of my LoR is out of this world, I think the other two might be average. I feel like I could get into almost all of them. None seems unlikely. But there are no "sure things".

Of the Religion programs, Northwestern small chance because of fit, I didn't apply to Harvard in the end, of the other 4-5, I'd guess 1-3 I'll get in/be waitlisted. Of the Sociology programs, I have NO idea. I feel good about all of them, the most competitive ones I have the best fit so that should help me. I don't think i'll get in to Princeton, but I have fair odds at the rest of them. But who knows what fair odds means these days. So we'll see! Kismet.

[tarski]

Am I the only one who feels like they don't really know? I applied to tough schools with a random subject... but I feel like I might be one of a very small number of applicants asking to work with certain professors which makes me competitive? I know one of my LoR is out of this world, I think the other two might be average. I feel like I could get into almost all of them. None seems unlikely. But there are no "sure things".

Of the Religion programs, Northwestern small chance because of fit, I didn't apply to Harvard in the end, of the other 4-5, I'd guess 1-3 I'll get in/be waitlisted. Of the Sociology programs, I have NO idea. I feel good about all of them, the most competitive ones I have the best fit so that should help me. I don't think i'll get in to Princeton, but I have fair odds at the rest of them. But who knows what fair odds means these days. So we'll see! Kismet.

I'm applying to 18 PhDs and 2 MAs... I'm almost guaranteed admission & funding from one of the MAs... but for everything else I'm just keeping the "So we'll see!" attitude too, for similar reasons.

[LateAntique]

Am I the only one who feels like they don't really know? I applied to tough schools with a random subject... but I feel like I might be one of a very small number of applicants asking to work with certain professors which makes me competitive? I know one of my LoR is out of this world, I think the other two might be average. I feel like I could get into almost all of them. None seems unlikely. But there are no "sure things".

Of the Religion programs, Northwestern small chance because of fit, I didn't apply to Harvard in the end, of the other 4-5, I'd guess 1-3 I'll get in/be waitlisted. Of the Sociology programs, I have NO idea. I feel good about all of them, the most competitive ones I have the best fit so that should help me. I don't think i'll get in to Princeton, but I have fair odds at the rest of them. But who knows what fair odds means these days. So we'll see! Kismet.

One of the programs to which I'm applying has a great archive of papyri and manuscripts but virtually no one is doing paleography anymore. I tried to stress that as one of my interests in my SoP and even met with the professor who does paleography there so he could see that I'm a nice guy and he would want to work with me for the next 5 years. My thinking is basically the same as yours: this is a great resource at this school and nobody's utilizing it, so maybe by being different I'll stand a greater chance of getting in.

[NEPA]

Applications: 6

Likely acceptance: 4

I'd have to be pretty lucky: 2

I predict that I will get into my first choice school. (I refuse to predict funding!)

[grad_wannabe]

Applications: 4

99% sure I will not get in: 1

Decent shot based solely on application (~30% sure I'll get in): 1

Pretty good shot based on aggressive networking (~20% and ~40%, respectively): 2

Then again, this is my first round of applications. I made it a rule to ONLY apply to long-shot schools. I have no sure safety by design.

[sebastiaan]

Hi all.

I applied to 10 schools.

I think that I am going to be accepted where I´m doing my MA (UoT) and in one university in the states. so 2/10 ?

[ma7eb4i]

0/5 Starting to think no schools. In retrospect, I think I probably grossly overshot and didn't apply to enough schools. While I'm genuinely happy for them, I am sooo jealous of the neuroscience folks that got first round interviews. *sigh*

[solairne]

I'm going to be bold and make predictions about the individual schools.

*note that all the programs I applied for come with full funding*

McGill - accepted (75% or greater chance)

Rice - accepted (75* or greater chance)

Amherst - Could go either way, I would not be surprised with any outcome

MIT - rejection (maybe a sliver of a chance that I'll be accepted, never know)

I bet I'll come back posting 0/4 though.....

[Rory]

Based on numbers, LORs, and quality of writing samples, here are my predictions:

Accepted: 2

Rejected: 5

Waitlisted: 2 (this is more wishful thinking than anything)

But I think in the end my obscure topic of interest will either make or break my applications - if I get into one of my top choices, it will probably be due to my research proposal.

[dzk]

0/5 Starting to think no schools. In retrospect, I think I probably grossly overshot and didn't apply to enough schools. While I'm genuinely happy for them, I am sooo jealous of the neuroscience folks that got first round interviews. *sigh*

You realize that it's very likely that none of your schools have sent out interview invites yet, right? Relax. I know for sure that Stanford and JHU haven't sent their invites.

[drcogsci]

I'm predicting 2/11 maximum. More likely 1 or 0. I'm currently 0/1

[jacib]

But I think in the end my obscure topic of interest will either make or break my applications - if I get into one of my top choices, it will probably be due to my research proposal.

I know exactly what you mean.

[keylimekai]

2/4, one funded...just hoping it's the one I want!

[emilywantstogetin]

I love this thread! I've been lurking but haven't posted much.

Anyway, I only applied to schools that promises full funding to all graduate student. When I applied for masters in a different but related field, it was 5 out of 6, 4 of which with fundings. My GRE scores royally sucked, but I feel pretty good about my LOR, SOP, and writing samples. I think my strongest point is actually fit-- not in terms of level of competitiveness, but in terms of areas of interest. I heard somewhere that the higher a university ranks, the more they emphsize research potential over GRE scores---i am just going to keep living in that bubble for now.

Out of the 6 I applied,

2 are recognized as top-notch in the field. I will need a whole lot of lucky underwear to get in.

2 are recognized in general as freakishly top-notch universities, but not known for my field. I feel like I have a fair chance, especially since my area of interest is kind of in the grey area right now, and these schools are known for loving grey areas. These are my top choices, for their love of grey areas.

2 are recognized as solid, good schools in general and in the field. These I have been told I have a good shot.

So I am hoping 3-4 acceptances. Preferably both "grey area", but I'd be happy going to any of the schools I've applied to.

[SomeoneTakeMe]

Applied to 11 schools. Now wishing I applied to about 20. Depending on the day this number changes, but I predict:

Good shot at 1

A big 50/50 at 4

If I'm lucky at 4

With a hope and a prayer (and I'm not religious so that's going to be tough) at 2

If even one of those has funding, I'll be happy.

But this waiting sucks! Why can't it be February???

[iCyborg]

2/10, probably UPenn and JHU. My dream school is CMU. God! help!

[Victorianna]

Out of 11 schools in total I am hoping for 5, but I think that 2 might be more realistic unfortunately.

[qberta]

1 program: 50% sure i'll get in

3 programs: 30% chance i'll get in

2 programs: 99% sure i won't get in

it's so hard to tell. i'm hoping 2 of 6, right now.

[LifeIsGood]

A friend of mine says you have to speak what you want into being. So I am hereby predicting out loud to the universe that I will be accepted to Dream University with full funding. (Silently, I'm predicting that it's unpredictable, and I might get into all or none of my schools, with or without funding.) After that comes true, I will then predict that I will pass my MA comps, that my house will sell quickly and profitably, that the move will be painless, that I will love my new program and advisor, that my husband will land the best job ever in our new city, and that my kids will be happy in their new schools. That's not too much to ask, right?

[SNPCracklePop]

Only applying to two programs.

I'm predicting 1/2.

Acceptances: Wayne State showed a lot of interest last year and threw stipend offers, withdrew app for my baby boy.

Rejections: UMich-PIBS might be too far of a reach, especially since I haven't received an interview invite yet, and rejections happened about this time last year.

[katalytik]

Harvard: 10-20% chance of acceptance

Hopkins: 40% chance

Michingan: 30-40% chance

[Caohit]

Have a good feeling about: 2

Think I have good fit: 2

Have no idea: 4

Probably not: 2

[Sanssouci]

Applied: 5 (so far..)

Accepted: 1

Somewhat optimistic about: 2

Not very optimistic about: 1

Pretty much written off: 1