Admissions Blog 2017: Taking Over

[Sam Anscombe]

Hi all,

Last admissions cycle, you might have seen Jac Barcan around offering advice and predictions for the 2016 season. For the Fall 2017 cycle, I will be taking over the blog. I posted my predictions on the blog today. Each prediction is based on an average of the last ~5 release dates. I follow the methodology of my forebearers by occasionally omitting outliers or adjusting the average to fit patterns (e.g., if a university always releases decisions on a Friday but the average date falls on a Saturday, I round the average to the nearest Friday). Although some schools are based on five years worth of data, some are based on only one or two data points.

I followed Jac's lead by adding more unranked programs to the list (most notably, MSU, SUNY Binghamton, and SUNY Buffalo). My data points are gathered from the TGC survey, but I do not know how accurate all of the dates are. Hopefully down the line, the accuracy of our predictions will improve. I am always open to suggestions.

You can view the blog at philosophyadmissions.wordpress.com 

Once admissions notifications start to come out, I will be active on here and on the blog. I will check TGC for updates and update the blog accordingly at least once per day. If you have any tips you would like to contribute to the blog but do not want to post on TGC, please feel free to contact me on here or by email at philosophyadmissionsblog at gmail dot com.

Good luck with the rest of your applications.

Yours,

Sam

[hector549]

@Sam Anscombe thank you for taking this on!

[Duns Eith]

You rock! Thank you for taking the reins!

[goldenstardust11]

Ooh! Thank you for adding so many unranked programs! This is great.

[Duns Eith]

Sam, if we want to contribute data or add certain schools (say, for next cycle) how should we best get you the data we've harvested or voice a request?

[Sam Anscombe]

11 hours ago, Turretin said:

Sam, if we want to contribute data or add certain schools (say, for next cycle) how should we best get you the data we've harvested or voice a request?

 

 

Feel free to message me! I'm happy to take into account any data you have as well as any predictions you would like me to add. You can email philosophyadmissionsblog at gmail dot com.

Edited January 6, 2017 by Sam Anscombe

[Duns Eith]

I PM'd and emailed you the data

[Kierkegaardashian]

Sam Anscombe, thanks a bunch for doing this; I know a lot of people will find this useful. However, as a person who is in his third round of applications, perhaps I can offer a small piece of advice to the other applicants that might preserve their sanity: don't check the gradcafe results or the timetables for responses and speculate about whether or not you were accepted to a school. In the past two rounds I spent a lot of time doing this, and it changed absolutely nothing. All it did was waste time and give me angst by second-guessing and waiting for emails that were "supposed to come out today." This time around, I think I'll just try to forget about my apps, focus on my classes, and let the emails come when they will.

Also, I should mention I realize that there are often other (perhaps more productive) reasons for checking timetables and results, such as when one has been waitlisted, is trying to make an acceptance decision, etc.

Edited January 10, 2017 by Kierkegaardashian

[majorshake]

Hey Sam,

Thanks a bunch for this! Could you look into Villanova please?

 

(Holy shit most of the predictions for my programs are so early in the season - if you're right, and I hope you are, I'll basically be done by mid-Feb)

[Duns Eith]

15 hours ago, majorshake said:

Hey Sam,

Thanks a bunch for this! Could you look into Villanova please?

 

(Holy shit most of the predictions for my programs are so early in the season - if you're right, and I hope you are, I'll basically be done by mid-Feb)

Ah, but those are initial decisions. You could hear back on many late March or early April. I personally expect some to come at the zero hour: 4:50pm, April 15.

[majorshake]

4 hours ago, Turretin said:

Ah, but those are initial decisions. You could hear back on many late March or early April. I personally expect some to come at the zero hour: 4:50pm, April 15.

yeah.. i realise that. but at the same time, i'm expecting all rejections, and i'd rather they come sooner rather than later, because my backup is to apply for an Australian program, and for that I need to write a research proposal

[Sam Anscombe]

On 1/13/2017 at 10:24 PM, majorshake said:

Hey Sam,

Thanks a bunch for this! Could you look into Villanova please?

 

(Holy shit most of the predictions for my programs are so early in the season - if you're right, and I hope you are, I'll basically be done by mid-Feb)

 

Uploaded. As with the other newer additions the the blog, the results are going to be based on the announcements on the TGC Survey. I predicted March 1 based on the last three years.

[majorshake]

13 hours ago, Sam Anscombe said:

Uploaded. As with the other newer additions the the blog, the results are going to be based on the announcements on the TGC Survey. I predicted March 1 based on the last three years.

Awesome - thanks. You're the real mvp

[Dialectica]

After looking over past results (motivated by an unhealthy anxiety), I just wanted to express my frustration and bewilderment at how inconsistent some programs are in making their decisions. UNC, for instance, releases their acceptances in mid-January one year, and then mid-February the next. I wish there were SOME predictable part of this process (other than that it is unpredictable). 

[Sam Anscombe]

4 hours ago, Dialectica said:

After looking over past results (motivated by an unhealthy anxiety), I just wanted to express my frustration and bewilderment at how inconsistent some programs are in making their decisions. UNC, for instance, releases their acceptances in mid-January one year, and then mid-February the next. I wish there were SOME predictable part of this process (other than that it is unpredictable). 

 

Yes, I had similar thoughts while calculating predictions. When there is one release date on February 14 in 2015 and one on March 14 in 2016, I can make a prediction of February 28 or March 1 for this cycle, but who knows how accurate that will be?

I imagine that release dates vary based on the department and also on the current DGS. A new DGS could come in who wants to move things along much quicker than his predecessors, and this too could (and probably does) complicate predictions.

[Swann]

So...next week is the first week with some predictions! (Northwestern, Ohio, Duke, and UI-C [whats the "jan 27 deadline" about?])

Anyone getting anxious? 

 

I'm crossing my fingers for NW, UIC, and Duke!!

[Sam Anscombe]

17 hours ago, Swann said:

So...next week is the first week with some predictions! (Northwestern, Ohio, Duke, and UI-C [whats the "jan 27 deadline" about?])

Anyone getting anxious? 

 

I'm crossing my fingers for NW, UIC, and Duke!!

 

Hey Swann,

That was an error. My mistake—thanks for pointing that out. It now says that Jan 27 is the prediction for the Jan 7 deadline. The reason I specify the deadline at all is because someone messaged me with information and predictions about UIC. There is a second deadline on Feb 1, which is the deadline for the TAship (whereas Jan 7 is the deadline for consideration of fellowship). The prediction for the first deadline is Jan 27, and the prediction for the second deadline is Feb 23. 

[agrawalamod]

This is very interesting! Is there any similar data for Masters (in Computer Science) applications as well? Thanks. 

[Sam Anscombe]

51 minutes ago, agrawalamod said:

This is very interesting! Is there any similar data for Masters (in Computer Science) applications as well? Thanks. 

The Philosophy Admissions blog was started in 2014 by Ian Faircloud—I'm not sure whether something like that exists for Computer Science. If you wanted to start a similar blog, I think some of the data used for predictions was originally gathered from the TGC Survey, which shows decision notifications from many different fields. The dates are based on user submissions, so the dates might vary in reliability.

[Tecumseh Valley]

I'm wondering if the inauguration and its corollary protests will slow admissions decisions. For whatever reason, I'm not counting on this week's predictions to be accurate. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to hear from Ohio State and Northwestern ASAP. But, I wouldn't be surprised if these are delayed a week.

[majorshake]

I found out through the DePaul department calendar that they hope to interview candidates between the 6th and 8th of Feb

This might be of interest to some - I hope this isn't the wrong place to mention this

Here's the source: http://las.depaul.edu/academics/philosophy/about/Documents/Calendar.pdf

[Swann]

On 1/26/2017 at 9:53 PM, majorshake said:

I found out through the DePaul department calendar that they hope to interview candidates between the 6th and 8th of Feb

This might be of interest to some - I hope this isn't the wrong place to mention this

Here's the source: http://las.depaul.edu/academics/philosophy/about/Documents/Calendar.pdf

Wow. If this is right, they are meeting to review the final apps right now! And, that Skype meetings are next monday-wed. So...does this mean that theyll notify potential candidates today?? (I hope)

[majorshake]

2 hours ago, Swann said:

Wow. If this is right, they are meeting to review the final apps right now! And, that Skype meetings are next monday-wed. So...does this mean that theyll notify potential candidates today?? (I hope)

I also hope.. 

There is another meeting for all full time faculty right after, so i assume the Grad Director will be there. If I'm not wrong, it's 4 o'clock there now. So.. if we're going to hear back today, it'll start in about an hour.. (but then, he'll probs want to go home at 5, because it's friday and fuck working late on a friday..)

[Swann]

yikes. well looks like some emails went out........none for me, though

1 hour ago, majorshake said:

I also hope.. 

There is another meeting for all full time faculty right after, so i assume the Grad Director will be there. If I'm not wrong, it's 4 o'clock there now. So.. if we're going to hear back today, it'll start in about an hour.. (but then, he'll probs want to go home at 5, because it's friday and fuck working late on a friday..)

 

[majorshake]

12 minutes ago, Swann said:

yikes. well looks like some emails went out........none for me, though

 

Me neither..