PhilCoffee

There is actually someone going to Pitt HPS from CSULB this year, according to the placement info available on their web page.

Well it seems incredibly likely that there will be more spots total next year versus this year, simply because I think a lot of those schools that closed their PhD applications will open up again, and so even if schools continue to have reduced admissions that would open up at least a few more spots. 
 
It also depends on whether GRE requirements are reinstituted since it looks like many more international students applied to US programs than normal because of this (though I got amazing GRE scores, there did not seem to be a correlation with the places I got into this year and the places that allowed me to submit my GRE scores, so my guess is most admissions committees are not taking them as seriously at all and probably will not again). Of course whether or not this makes it easier for YOU depends on all sorts of factors like your country of origin, test taking aptitude, etc. Overall it would be better in terms of accessibility to do away with GRE requirements all together, so even if it means more applicants overall I am strongly in favor of this route. 
 
There definitely will be people who got shut out this year applying, and anecdotally I get the sense that this number is higher than in most previous years, but not like 100s of people. I imagine a lot of people who got shut out of PhDs got into MAs so won’t be applying for two years, and then a lot of people who got shut out because they decided to apply on a whim probably won’t apply again. 
 
Applications also almost always go up in a recession (and even though getting a Philosophy PhD might be somewhat of a strange choice to make in a recession, it does seem like that played at least part of a role), so if the economy continues to improve and the US is doing well economically by the fall, then I imagine that would predict a decrease in applicants relative to this year. However, if other countries are still in a recession due to lagging vaccine rollout, etc., then there may still be an increase in applicants from international countries. 
So I guess if I was forced to take a guess, I would say it will ALMOST CERTAINLY not be AS bad as it was this year, MOST LIKELY will just be marginally better or around the same (slightly more spots, slightly fewer or around the same # of applicants overall), and COULD BE BUT PROBABLY WON’T be significantly easier (I think the only way this would happen is if all programs open up and returned to 2019 level of admissions combined with a thriving economy leading to 100s of fewer people applying).
So yeah overall I’d say brace yourself for about the same level of anxiety, maybe slightly less, as we collectively went through this year ?

There is actually someone going to Pitt HPS from CSULB this year, according to the placement info available on their web page.

It's largely a function of what kind of person you'd be excited to become.
Unfortunately, only a small portion of graduates from top 10 programs get TT jobs at top research universities. So, if you are ambitious to get that kind of job, maybe Irvine LPS will do, but maybe not.
Just look at the placement records of Irvine LPS and WUSTL PNP, and ask whether you'd be content with that. If yes, done. If not, check some top 10 department's records and compare. And be aware that only a few from these T10 programs really get prestigious jobs from the start.

It's largely a function of what kind of person you'd be excited to become.
Unfortunately, only a small portion of graduates from top 10 programs get TT jobs at top research universities. So, if you are ambitious to get that kind of job, maybe Irvine LPS will do, but maybe not.
Just look at the placement records of Irvine LPS and WUSTL PNP, and ask whether you'd be content with that. If yes, done. If not, check some top 10 department's records and compare. And be aware that only a few from these T10 programs really get prestigious jobs from the start.

Hi again,
No problem: ABD means "All But Dissertation." Yes out of coursework, though not always teaching. Should be doing research, but it varies a great deal by department what the support is like during that phase, which is a key part of any program. It's easy to be excited about a program when things are well-funded, structured by coursework, and you have frequent contact with your cohort. Things get different when you are in the comprehensive exams and dissertation phase.
To your point regarding TT jobs: you should consider reading up on this through posts on DailyNous and Philosophers' Cocoon. One thing worth thinking about is what kind of job you would like to get if you were to get one: some people want teaching jobs, others won't be satisfied with anything less than a prestigious research job at an Ivy School. If you are only interested in jobs like the latter, you'll (almost without exception) have to go to a very narrow set of schools like Princeton, Yale, Rutgers, etc. But those same students, as it turns out, sometimes struggle to get the other kinds of jobs at smaller and teaching oriented schools. Not that any of them are easy to get. If you want to work in industry, your considerations will be drastically different--many of these programs will do a terrible job of preparing you to work outside of an academic setting and will even consider it a disappointment. If you want to keep that door open, you should be looking very carefully at each of these places to see how they set students up to make a transition to the non-academic job markets you wish to be in.

Thanks, folks!!
I totally agree with this, @Happybuddha. I'll begin reaching out to folks at UCI LPS and talking to them, among other things, about fit. The program has a tremendous academic placement record, which matters to me, as I want to be an academic. I also wish to keep industry doors open though (I truly think philosophy in AI is applied).
@Marcus_Aurelius I'm not fully sure about this myself TBH. I presume brand value matters quite a bit in keeping industry doors open. I don't know how a WashU or UCI would compare. I want to be in an interdiscplinary program, something like LPS/HPS (Stanford's symbolic systems track was my dream program).
@Mischief Thanks! Rookie question...what is an "ABD" student? Are they students who are beyond coursework who now just teach and research?

This is a perfectly normal part of the experience. The application process is not designed to promote applicant mental health nor to provide clear, actionable feedback on your application.
At best, there’s a general sense of what is valued for programs, but the whole variety of factors at play can make it extremely difficult to determine why a decision is made.
 
This is especially true because there are often so many more applicants who are perfectly qualified than there are slots available.
You could have a great application, but they may already have 6 students studying that topic, so they have to pass in favor of someone else whose focus is less represented (this example is less true for MAs, but still holds).
Unfortunately, this means you have to rely on analysis that doesn’t come directly from the programs themselves. Speak with your letter writers, especially anyone who has served on a graduate acceptance committee (which can be hard when you attended an undergrad where there isn’t a graduate program).
The two best things you can do for your application are:
Figure out what you can do to improve your application based on general standards (do you need to edit your writing samples? Do you need to get a different letter of rec? Do you need to retake the GREs?)
Make sure that the programs you are applying to are the best ‘fit’ for you, where you have the greatest chance of being picked from a pool of equally qualified applications, based on your research interests and the department specialities. (Again, this is less true for MA programs than PhDs, but it is still somewhat true.)
And yeah, it sucks. I’ve been shut out before, left alone with basically no understanding of why I wasn’t successful in my application, which was a terrible feeling. You are definitely not alone in this.

I did it with Minnesota. It was not weird at all, but I didn't go out of my way to make further contact or schedule individual meetings.

Waitlisted at UT Austin! I'm an international student and applying out of undergrad - with no pedigree and bad GPA. My main target was MA programs but would be really really grateful if I got in. If someone got accepted by UT Austin and is not interested, please let me know! Please.

Over the past few years I've noticed a number of trends when it comes to departmental websites being less than accessible or clear about what materials they need from applicants and how certain processes work (such as letters of recommendation-i.e., do they go out before or after you submit the application). As an extension of the Philosophy Admissions Spreadsheet (bit.ly/PhilAdm), I am gathering information both on the barriers folks have encountered while applying in recent years and trying to finally get a solid set of numbers concerning how many schools folks are applying to. That's where you and other recent applicants come in! 

Link to the Google Form survey
In order to make asks and create change we are going to need tangible numbers that the APA and departments can take seriously. For better or worse, a survey of this sort might be one of the faster ways to gather this information or, minimally, set the stage for a more formal investigation through the Graduate Student APA council to workshop changes to the system and remove/reduce the barriers for future applicants.
 
-Linds Whittaker (University of Washington)

I see. Thanks for letting me know! Hopefully I will get bumped up to a higher position on the waitlist then. Good luck to you with SFU and TT!

There is something with this. But also, note that there may be cases where ones intended supervisor leaves, or one is no longer passionate about what she used to.
So, there are some good things about going to a top department:
1) There are more top-notch philosophers at top departments (I wonder whether you'll reject the notion of top department, though)
2) There are more top-notch philosophers in different areas at one top department. This may itself make one change ones interests, and it also allows that one can actually change the direction without loss at many levels.

For anyone rejected by Rutgers: 
 

This is super generous, but note the caveat before blasting Alexander with emails: 'particularly those who don't get in anywhere'.

I know personally at least one person who got accepted to UW-Milwaukee. I think they did send out acceptance offers. Also according to the FB group there were a bunch of people claiming that they are going to decline the offers soon, so I am hoping that that opens up some spots for us. 

But in the Acceptance Thread, @MtnDuck said that he seemed to track from FB and there are already 4 acceptance.
Well, he is not sure though, I think.

Accepted at Syracuse.

I've seen some being on the waitlist at UW-Milwaukee (including myself) and many being high on the waitlist. I also know some get rejected there. But I haven't seen anyone reports that she gets accepted, which seems weird.

There is something with this. But also, note that there may be cases where ones intended supervisor leaves, or one is no longer passionate about what she used to.
So, there are some good things about going to a top department:
1) There are more top-notch philosophers at top departments (I wonder whether you'll reject the notion of top department, though)
2) There are more top-notch philosophers in different areas at one top department. This may itself make one change ones interests, and it also allows that one can actually change the direction without loss at many levels.

There is something with this. But also, note that there may be cases where ones intended supervisor leaves, or one is no longer passionate about what she used to.
So, there are some good things about going to a top department:
1) There are more top-notch philosophers at top departments (I wonder whether you'll reject the notion of top department, though)
2) There are more top-notch philosophers in different areas at one top department. This may itself make one change ones interests, and it also allows that one can actually change the direction without loss at many levels.

There is something with this. But also, note that there may be cases where ones intended supervisor leaves, or one is no longer passionate about what she used to.
So, there are some good things about going to a top department:
1) There are more top-notch philosophers at top departments (I wonder whether you'll reject the notion of top department, though)
2) There are more top-notch philosophers in different areas at one top department. This may itself make one change ones interests, and it also allows that one can actually change the direction without loss at many levels.

There is something with this. But also, note that there may be cases where ones intended supervisor leaves, or one is no longer passionate about what she used to.
So, there are some good things about going to a top department:
1) There are more top-notch philosophers at top departments (I wonder whether you'll reject the notion of top department, though)
2) There are more top-notch philosophers in different areas at one top department. This may itself make one change ones interests, and it also allows that one can actually change the direction without loss at many levels.

Indeed we had a survey a while back about how many schools folks are applying to this year with some elements about potential shutouts that could be extrapolated from the data (somewhat). I believe that as the application cycle wraps up there is intention and a willingness for folks to engage in another survey to see how many schools folks got into, how many As, Ws, and Rs, and to see how many shutouts there are.
More on that soon potentially--right now I'm trying to get the data and writeup from the first survey done today/tomorrow so I can make it public facing ?

FWIW, there's different versions of this scenario in every department. In my department, one intended advisor left, and a second intended advisor retired. We have new hires, but they're too green to direct a dissertation and having non-tenured faculty on a dissertation committee is risky. Departments usually look different at dissertation stage than they did at admissions stage, and you'll probably be different by then too.