Admissions Blog: Hello and Predictions

[philosophe]

@jacbarcan do you think the usc rejections are just first round rejections? trying to figure out if that means I'm still in the running or if I should brace to be rejected at a later time.

[Erratic_Akratic]

4 minutes ago, philosophe said:

@jacbarcan do you think the usc rejections are just first round rejections? trying to figure out if that means I'm still in the running or if I should brace to be rejected at a later time.

There seem to have been only few rejections sent out (given the number of rejections posted on the grad café). So I would keep my hopes up given you are not one of the unlucky few.

On the other hand, the small number of rejections posted is also evidence that are still many rejections to be sent around! 

All in all, then, I would say the situation calls for a very tempered optimism. 

 

[jacbarcan]

I'm really unsure about this. I keep trying to say something about this and keep typing and erasing. Idk what they're up to. 

[gughok]

3 minutes ago, jacbarcan said:

I'm really unsure about this. I keep trying to say something about this and keep typing and erasing. Idk what they're up to. 

What do you think of the reported Princeton phone call? It makes sense given their earlier deadline this year (by two weeks), but I want to believe it's fake, because the only person I've spoken to on the phone today is my mom, and she is not a professor at Princeton.

[jacbarcan]

I'm suspicious that it's legitimate because it is a top school and it is particularly early even for the two week earlier deadline. (I personally think that early deadlines don't mean much at all and they're mainly due to the graduate school as a whole imposing deadlines than any particular department wanting to release earlier.) So, Princeton has exclusively released in March in the past four years. 

I do think that whoever said that a particularly excited POI might contact an applicant early. I hesitate to post anything on the blog though. Note that there was a similar Harvard acceptance too. From what I understand, the Harvard accepted person was a bit reserved when telling the friend about the acceptance. Maybe it was an excited POI saying "surprise, but shhhh"

[gughok]

32 minutes ago, jacbarcan said:

I'm suspicious that it's legitimate because it is a top school and it is particularly early even for the two week earlier deadline. (I personally think that early deadlines don't mean much at all and they're mainly due to the graduate school as a whole imposing deadlines than any particular department wanting to release earlier.) So, Princeton has exclusively released in March in the past four years. 

I do think that whoever said that a particularly excited POI might contact an applicant early. I hesitate to post anything on the blog though. Note that there was a similar Harvard acceptance too. From what I understand, the Harvard accepted person was a bit reserved when telling the friend about the acceptance. Maybe it was an excited POI saying "surprise, but shhhh"

I feel like this raises a second question: do committees arrive at their final list of admits more or less at the same time, or do they build up the list starting from a few "definite admits" and adding to that? In the former case, that explanation makes a little less sense: why would they be hush-hush about it if they're practically done, unless they inexplicably intend not to release their results for a while (that would demand a second explanation). In the latter case, I would be a bit nervous about not being one of the obvious admits.

[philstudent1992]

2 minutes ago, gughok said:

I feel like this raises a second question: do committees arrive at their final list of admits more or less at the same time, or do they build up the list starting from a few "definite admits" and adding to that? In the former case, that explanation makes a little less sense: why would they be hush-hush about it if they're practically done, unless they inexplicably intend not to release their results for a while (that would demand a second explanation). In the latter case, I would be a bit nervous about not being one of the obvious admits.

Here's another option: committees reach the final list of admits one at a time in an order that doesn't track "definiteness." For instance, maybe Harvard knows they want 2 ethics people, 2 metaphysics people, and one epistemology person in their incoming cohort, and they decide on admissions for each of these areas in turn. So they decide on 2 epistemology people to accept (expecting one to turn them down), then go on to think about their ethics and metaphysics people. But before the whole process is done, the POI contacts one of those epistemology people. So here, we have a good explanation for why someone would be notified before everyone else that doesn't entail that if you haven't been contacted by now, you must be a worse candidate than that person who was notified.

[philosophe]

I feel bad that although we've deduced that princeton posts (and probably yale / harvard posts) are fake, future grad cafe result page researchers will have false results. Annoyed in advance for those people who's predictions will be off because of the false data points. 

[philosophe]

So this week I'm hoping for UNC -- Wednesday or Friday, right Jac? -- the rest of the Brown offers, the rest of the Indiana offers (I actually called and they said they were "in the middle of" sending out acceptances), and maybe even UCLA or Yale. (Dare I dream?). 

Edited February 16, 2016 by philosophe

[jacbarcan]

Fortunately, I have a spread sheet made. I'll just send them that and tell them to make an educated decision when looking at the stats about whether or not something may be fake. I might also put the spread sheet up on the blog for everyone's reference. Maybe when everything is dying down a bit more and I FINALLY get that funding page up. 

As for UNC, pretty sure they'll come out by Friday based on my source. He says maybe Wednesday, but most likely Friday. Definitely dream, definitely. 

[LLeuven]

Did anyone else apply to the University of South Florida? I was told they are releasing decisions this week.

[Siegfried42]

Hey Jac, what's your take on the UCLA posts? I've noticed in the past their acceptances seem very spread out. Do you think they're done with the first round of admissions?

Edited February 16, 2016 by Siegfried42

[philosophe]

Just now, Siegfried42 said:

Hey Jac, what's your take on the UCLA posts? I've noticed in the past their acceptance seem very spread out. Do you think they're done with the first round of admissions?

I was wondering about that too... are those later posts admits from the WL? Do they even have a public WL, or do they just with hold rejections so they can accept more if needed?

[jacbarcan]

I would say a combination of waves of acceptances (maybe they do it by AOIs) and a few admitted applicants have rejected offers and they're running second rounds of acceptances. In any case, I would definitely not give up hope. They seem to take their time spreading out and it doesn't look like just coming off wait lists. 

[Siegfried42]

46 minutes ago, jacbarcan said:

I would say a combination of waves of acceptances (maybe they do it by AOIs) and a few admitted applicants have rejected offers and they're running second rounds of acceptances. In any case, I would definitely not give up hope. They seem to take their time spreading out and it doesn't look like just coming off wait lists. 

Thanks! I'll keep hoping for a little longer

[502845824]

14 hours ago, jacbarcan said:

Fortunately, I have a spread sheet made. I'll just send them that and tell them to make an educated decision when looking at the stats about whether or not something may be fake. I might also put the spread sheet up on the blog for everyone's reference. Maybe when everything is dying down a bit more and I FINALLY get that funding page up. 

As for UNC, pretty sure they'll come out by Friday based on my source. He says maybe Wednesday, but most likely Friday. Definitely dream, definitely. 

Given that two UNC accepts are out now, do you think they're done, or do I still have a shot?? Thanks so much! 

[philosophe]

1 minute ago, oldhatnewtricks said:

Given that two UNC accepts are out now, do you think they're done, or do I still have a shot?? Thanks so much! 

Also one wait list, which saddens me because now I feel like I can't even hope for that... 

[502845824]

2 minutes ago, philosophe said:

Also one wait list, which saddens me because now I feel like I can't even hope for that... 

Damn I didn't realize a waitlist had gone out I guess I'll have to break the news to my SO soon... definitely waiting for an official rejection before I do, though.

[jacbarcan]

13 minutes ago, oldhatnewtricks said:

Damn I didn't realize a waitlist had gone out I guess I'll have to break the news to my SO soon... definitely waiting for an official rejection before I do, though.

Does your SO not want to be at Pitt or Virginia?

[502845824]

2 minutes ago, jacbarcan said:

Does your SO not want to be at Pitt or Virginia?

More that she doesn't want me to be. She's doing an MFA at UNC already. But, I mean, she's cool and she understands. It would just be awesome to move in together.

[jacbarcan]

Ahh. That is tough. Wishing you luck with UNC then. 

[502845824]

14 minutes ago, jacbarcan said:

Ahh. That is tough. Wishing you luck with UNC then. 

Thanks!

[pecado]

I suggest you edit the brown date, because the admission that happened at february 12 was a special case, and the normal admissions have not been released yet.

[jacbarcan]

I've been wondering about that too. What does everyone think?

[Nat_Foot]

I agree with @pecado. I think, in general, the dates posted should reflect normal admissions rather than special fellowship ones.