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NSF GRFP 2011-2012


alexhunterlang

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One thing contra the late saturday\early sunday idea would be the fact that in the past 5 years, the notification has always come on a weekday, not the weekend.

This might just be actual scheduled maintenance, which I what I will keep telling myself.

Edited by Xavi6
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There is an advisory that was posted today that says "FastLane will be unavailable Sunday, March 18, from 12:01 AM to 8:00 AM ET for scheduled maintenance. We apologize for any inconvenience."

Hmmmm......

This is a completely delicious fact to go crazy about. I love it

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This was last year's notice before they released the results around 1-2am:

04/04/11 - GRFP/FastLane will be unavailable from 11:00PM ET Monday, April 4th - 5:00AM ET Tuesday, April 5th for scheduled maintenance. We apologize for any inconvenience.

Discuss.

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This was last year's notice before they released the results around 1-2am:

04/04/11 - GRFP/FastLane will be unavailable from 11:00PM ET Monday, April 4th - 5:00AM ET Tuesday, April 5th for scheduled maintenance. We apologize for any inconvenience.

Discuss.

Here's my overanalysis: last year the GRFP was specifically mentioned in the maintenance bulletin and the current bulletin doesn't mention it. That plus it being a weekend update makes this seem a little too good to be true. I remember last year that people actually called the NSF to see what was going on. There's internet reputation available for anyone who does that haha

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yeah that period of time when you repeatedly try and log onto fastlane because the website is overloaded is a pretty nerve wracking experience. Is $100,000 and a Ph.D. on the other side? You're pretty much on the price is right, except with more impact on your career

Edited by Jimbo2
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yeah that's how it was last year. you got two windows open refreshing this website and the NSF one and posts on this one start to trickle in saying they got the GRF or didn't. the emails don't go out for another few hours, so if you want to know asap, you have to do the refresh routine. last year i was just happy to have gotten accepted into grad school, so this year the fellowship will be more of a big deal

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I'm new to this thread and forum. I've been obsessing about when I'll find out so it's nice to have a place I can do this. I'm dying to know! I know many talented people who applied this year so it will be interesting.

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Ah, I see that the first wave of "IT'S COMING THIS WEEKEND OMG OMG OMG" has come and gone :) I want another one to keep my days interesting. Life will be much less suspenseful when these dumb results are released...

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While it does appear that the advance warning of Fastlane being down is a reliable indicator for when the results are released, March 18th seems a bit early. Going back a few years, only 2007 was released in March. (I pulled these dates off previous gradcafe forums, let me know if they're wrong)

2007- Friday, March 23

2008- Tuesday, April 1 (Results were apparently accidently released\hacked the day before)

2009- Friday, April 10th

2010- Tuesday, April 6th

2011- Tuesday, April 5th

So March 18th would be the earliest its been released in awhile, but that will not stop me compulsively checking Fastlane early Monday morning.

Perhaps this has happened before, do we know if the "Fastlane will be down" advance notice on the website around late March\early April always means the announcement will come?

bhyh5s.jpg

seriously though can someone give the nsf a call?

There's an ancient thread on the NSF GRFP from 2006 that suggests the results went out on April 17. Which I think will make the graph look really different. The slope of the linear plot might even become negative!

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If we acknowledge that the more recent years are better predictors than the farther away years, then we can do better than regression. We have to make several assumptions (like an original prior, that the years are i.i.d. normal, and that weekends, holidays, and leap years don't play in the decision). Each year's prior is the previous year's posterior, and we update our estimate and our uncertainty with new data. Then the box plots of the posterior distributions for each year are on the left, and our prior (our best guess based on the data) for 2012 is on the right.

nsf.mean.jpg

The 95% HPD credible interval for the 2012 prior is the 93.63 to 98.53 day of non leap year, or from April 3rd to April 9th. And the most likely day is April 6th. So that doesn't narrow it down too much, but thats what I get from the data.

Edited by qlathrop
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