Xavi6 Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 (edited) One thing contra the late saturday\early sunday idea would be the fact that in the past 5 years, the notification has always come on a weekday, not the weekend. This might just be actual scheduled maintenance, which I what I will keep telling myself. Edited March 14, 2012 by Xavi6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo2 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 i'd be pretty stoked if we got this over with this weekend. if i'm going to be applying again next year, i'd just like to know way in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hangin brain Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 There is an advisory that was posted today that says "FastLane will be unavailable Sunday, March 18, from 12:01 AM to 8:00 AM ET for scheduled maintenance. We apologize for any inconvenience." Hmmmm...... This is a completely delicious fact to go crazy about. I love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djperry Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 The possibility of getting results for Hertz and NSF in the span of a few days should make this an.. exciting.. weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maath805 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Hopefully this will be an amazing St. Patty's weekend. Drunk because I'm happy > Drunk because I'm sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illini2015 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 This was last year's notice before they released the results around 1-2am: 04/04/11 - GRFP/FastLane will be unavailable from 11:00PM ET Monday, April 4th - 5:00AM ET Tuesday, April 5th for scheduled maintenance. We apologize for any inconvenience. Discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo2 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 This was last year's notice before they released the results around 1-2am: 04/04/11 - GRFP/FastLane will be unavailable from 11:00PM ET Monday, April 4th - 5:00AM ET Tuesday, April 5th for scheduled maintenance. We apologize for any inconvenience. Discuss. Here's my overanalysis: last year the GRFP was specifically mentioned in the maintenance bulletin and the current bulletin doesn't mention it. That plus it being a weekend update makes this seem a little too good to be true. I remember last year that people actually called the NSF to see what was going on. There's internet reputation available for anyone who does that haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblossom2 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 It might happen but I remember my year (2008-2009 academic year) the website went down for maintanence multiple times before it was the "one" for releasing the results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockhopper Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 i'd be pretty stoked if we got this over with this weekend. if i'm going to be applying again next year, i'd just like to know way in advance Amen. That would be a miracle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaMermaid Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 I only have one shot to get this and now that the time for decisions is nearly upon us my stomach is in knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo2 Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 (edited) yeah that period of time when you repeatedly try and log onto fastlane because the website is overloaded is a pretty nerve wracking experience. Is $100,000 and a Ph.D. on the other side? You're pretty much on the price is right, except with more impact on your career Edited March 16, 2012 by Jimbo2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maath805 Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 ^ Yeah, I'm dreading that experience. It seems that that website and this one go down in flames. I'll bring some gasoline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo2 Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 yeah that's how it was last year. you got two windows open refreshing this website and the NSF one and posts on this one start to trickle in saying they got the GRF or didn't. the emails don't go out for another few hours, so if you want to know asap, you have to do the refresh routine. last year i was just happy to have gotten accepted into grad school, so this year the fellowship will be more of a big deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maath805 Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 (edited) I'm in my first year of grad school right now and didn't even THINK about applying to any fellowships last year. I wish I had. Fingers crossed we get it! Edited March 17, 2012 by maath805 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeuroGal Posted March 17, 2012 Share Posted March 17, 2012 I'm new to this thread and forum. I've been obsessing about when I'll find out so it's nice to have a place I can do this. I'm dying to know! I know many talented people who applied this year so it will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gelaface Posted March 18, 2012 Share Posted March 18, 2012 I just logged into the GRFP Fastlane and it seemed to work even though we are in the maintenance time window, so they might not be uploading our results (?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burntwaffle Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Well, this thread created a whole new thing for me to check obsessively: maintenance schedules. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flanna Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Ah, I see that the first wave of "IT'S COMING THIS WEEKEND OMG OMG OMG" has come and gone I want another one to keep my days interesting. Life will be much less suspenseful when these dumb results are released... mcstev13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo2 Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 seriously though can someone give the nsf a call? avampa, zero_percent_agarose, anthro.fish and 5 others 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthro.fish Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Holy shit! That is so funny! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chronos Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 I think we need more data points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Hehe, that's nice. Have you tried fitting the data to a curvilinear model? Maybe a log-linear one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deepbreath Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 While it does appear that the advance warning of Fastlane being down is a reliable indicator for when the results are released, March 18th seems a bit early. Going back a few years, only 2007 was released in March. (I pulled these dates off previous gradcafe forums, let me know if they're wrong) 2007- Friday, March 23 2008- Tuesday, April 1 (Results were apparently accidently released\hacked the day before) 2009- Friday, April 10th 2010- Tuesday, April 6th 2011- Tuesday, April 5th So March 18th would be the earliest its been released in awhile, but that will not stop me compulsively checking Fastlane early Monday morning. Perhaps this has happened before, do we know if the "Fastlane will be down" advance notice on the website around late March\early April always means the announcement will come? seriously though can someone give the nsf a call? There's an ancient thread on the NSF GRFP from 2006 that suggests the results went out on April 17. Which I think will make the graph look really different. The slope of the linear plot might even become negative! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo2 Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green_chair Posted March 22, 2012 Share Posted March 22, 2012 (edited) If we acknowledge that the more recent years are better predictors than the farther away years, then we can do better than regression. We have to make several assumptions (like an original prior, that the years are i.i.d. normal, and that weekends, holidays, and leap years don't play in the decision). Each year's prior is the previous year's posterior, and we update our estimate and our uncertainty with new data. Then the box plots of the posterior distributions for each year are on the left, and our prior (our best guess based on the data) for 2012 is on the right. The 95% HPD credible interval for the 2012 prior is the 93.63 to 98.53 day of non leap year, or from April 3rd to April 9th. And the most likely day is April 6th. So that doesn't narrow it down too much, but thats what I get from the data. Edited March 22, 2012 by qlathrop eco_env, green_chair, NeuroGal and 4 others 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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