NDSEG 2019-2020

[NDSEG_throwaway]

4 minutes ago, BCHGang said:

Wow, so I guess we were correct. It seems like those who did get later updates are more likely to win (with the NSF and Ford awards)

I think it's more of a combination between agency and field, there are some counterexamples on that spreadsheet who got NSF but are waiting in December Gang!

[cellbiogal]

I gotta say it looks like pretty fair mix. If the dates end up meaning something (I.e. ~December Gang~ got cut early) I think it's comforting knowing that there were strong applicants throughout and it doesn't mean your application was bad, just that it is a competitive process and there's lots of awesome scientists out there. Can't win 'em all  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

[OhTheStress]

[BCHGang]

People in the same BAA have already gotten back updates. Different field, but same BAA ! Welp ? 

[vpaglioni3]

Just now, BCHGang said:

People in the same BAA have already gotten back updates. Different field, but same BAA ! Welp ? 

Have faith, fellow DG member

~December Gang~ never says die

[fishandfreckles]

It may be good to have a column that says whether we are phd student, masters or undergrad

[GIIC]

3 minutes ago, fishandfreckles said:

It may be good to have a column that says whether we are phd student, masters or undergrad

I’m second year PhD, still with 2/28 update.

[BCHGang]

7 minutes ago, GIIC said:

I’m second year PhD, still with 2/28 update.

Add yourself to the google doc !

[fishandfreckles]

Dang, a lot of (you) won other fellowships- congrats! This is a competitive bunch.

 

[Sir Lurks-a-lot]

I have derived much pleasure following this thread for the past week.  Info added to the spreadsheet.  December Gang for life!

[yetanotherlurker]

I've been lurking so far, but wanted to join in... just added my info to the sheet. #DecemberGang

Edited April 9, 2020 by yetanotherlurker

[3st3rb]

Part of me feels like the people with the Feb update and the three April updates are gonna get awarded. #JumpingToEvenMoreConclusions 

 

[BCHGang]

13 minutes ago, 3st3rb said:

Part of me feels like the people with the Feb update and the three April updates are gonna get awarded. #JumpingToEvenMoreConclusions 

 

Yeah, that's what I suspect. To play Devil's advocate, December updates and 2020 updates are divided nearly 50/50. In this case, 47 for Dec and 40 for 2020

[jjvamd47]

Am I the only one with a January update (01/27) lol

[NDSEG_throwaway]

Just now, jjvamd47 said:

Am I the only one with a January update (01/27) lol

Ha that's a new one!

[BCHGang]

2 minutes ago, jjvamd47 said:

Am I the only one with a January update (01/27) lol

That is considered a february update in this situation I guess haha

[Pterophanes]

To add to this quagmire with an alternative theory: Perhaps all applications that received a late February update successfully made it through the first round of reviews and were evaluated by DoD agencies. From here, maybe applicants were a) selected for the fellowship or b) not selected. If selected, maybe the late February application update stuck as the final update. If not selected in a first round of reviews by DoD agencies, it's possible that evaluations were re-evaluated and from there were either selected as fellowship alternates or were rejected. 

So in this wacky scenario, a late February update *could* mean that applicants were shortlisted as fellows, while later April updates could indicate that applicants were either selected as fellowship alternates, or, were not selected. 

I would place very little weight in any attempts at drawing correlations between NSF GRF awards/Honorable Mention status and association with NDSEG. The application processes for grants and fellowships can be unpredictable, and priorities of NSF and DoD are also quite different. 

 

Edited April 9, 2020 by Pterophanes

[OhTheStress]

Unclear if this thread is truly a representative sample, but looking at last year's recipients, it looks like last year each branch (ARO, AFOSR, and ONR) gave out a roughly equal number of awards (~55 ea), but the responses we have now show that ARO and ARO/ERDC combined are about 2/3 of applicants and the rest split about even between ONR and AFRL.  May affect probabilities of getting an award, all else equal.

[OhTheStress]

Just now, Pterophanes said:

To add to this quagmire with an alternative theory: Perhaps all applications that received a late February update successfully made it through the first round of reviews and were evaluated by DoD agencies. From here, maybe applicants were a) selected for the fellowship or b) not selected. If selected, maybe the late February application update stuck as the final update. If not selected in a first round of reviews by DoD agencies, it's possible that evaluations were re-evaluated and from there were either selected as fellowship alternates or were rejected. 

So in this wacky scenario, a late February update *could* mean that applicants were shortlisted as fellows, while later April updates could indicate that applicants were either selected as fellowship alternates , or, were not selected. 

I would place very little weight in any attempts at drawing correlations between NSF GRF awards/Honorable Mention status and association with NDSEG. The application processes for grants and fellowships can be unpredictable, and priorities of NSF and DoD are also quite different. 

 

Given the comparatively small number of February updates, you may be onto something.  The mystery deepens.

[fishandfreckles]

4 minutes ago, Pterophanes said:

To add to this quagmire with an alternative theory: Perhaps all applications that received a late February update successfully made it through the first round of reviews and were evaluated by DoD agencies. From here, maybe applicants were a) selected for the fellowship or b) not selected. If selected, maybe the late February application update stuck as the final update. If not selected in a first round of reviews by DoD agencies, it's possible that evaluations were re-evaluated and from there were either selected as fellowship alternates or were rejected. 

So in this wacky scenario, a late February update *could* mean that applicants were shortlisted as fellows, while later April updates could indicate that applicants were either selected as fellowship alternates, or, were not selected. 

I would place very little weight in any attempts at drawing correlations between NSF GRF awards/Honorable Mention status and association with NDSEG. The application processes for grants and fellowships can be unpredictable, and priorities of NSF and DoD are also quite different. 

 

It does also look like almost all of the only Feb updates received other fellowships too. Obviously, the fellowship goals are different but I think this still reflects applicant merit.

But, still doesn't make sense why if not selected in February the application would be updated 3 more times?

[Momo1111]

@lurker what kind of Propulsion work are you into?  

[BCHGang]

I think whoever has an April 6th update won the award.

[GIIC]

I’m very much hoping tomorrow really is the day to hear? this suspense is too much. These dates have infected us all.

[OhTheStress]

8 minutes ago, BCHGang said:

I think whoever has an April 6th update won the award.

The percentage is about right overall (again, assuming that we have a semi-representative sample, which is unclear), but that would overpredict ONR awards and underpredict AFRL and ARO awards.  I'm hoping you're wrong because I had another on the 7th after ? 

I'm driving myself mad here thinking about these.  TELL US THE TRUTH SYSTEMS PLUS!  END OUR SUFFERING!

[BCHGang]

2 minutes ago, OhTheStress said:

 overpredict ONR awards and underpredict AFRL and ARO awards

Given that fewer people applied to ONR, could this be plausible?

Yeah, it kind of sucks waiting. At least you got an update though: I'm stuck before Christmas ! 

Edited April 9, 2020 by BCHGang