I guess to play devil's advocate: I agree, fit does play a huge factor. I interpret that conclusion in the opposite way, though. I find it difficult to believe that all the experts in one field happen to be in the top 20 English programs in America. Certainly fit should dictate that one apply to a breadth of "high" and "low" programs because experts in one's area do appear in a wide variety of ranked schools.
Maybe your field is unique in that way, Wyatt, but from what I've seen, there are rock star Early Modernists at Yale and at (insert SLAC name here) too. I wager this is the same for most other fields of study.